Despite the government estimating a lower kharif production
due to uneven distribution of rains, the summer crop output is expected to be “healthy”, as last year was a bumper year in terms of acreage and output.
According to CRISIL, the projected decline in kharif production is due to a sharp increase in both the sowing area and production of most crops last year.
As compared to last year, sowing as of September 29, was lower for foodgrain and oilseeds, Crisil
report said today.
The government's first advance estimates suggest kharif production could be 2.8 per cent lower on-year for foodgrain and as much as 7.7 per cent lower for oilseeds.
The flip side to a good monsoon and a bumper crop of last year is that prices for most foodgrain have fallen and consequently reduced farmers' profits.
For pulses and oilseeds, prices fell even below their minimum support prices and cost of cultivation, resulting in a loss on the margins, the report said adding that for several crops, prices and profit margins have continued to decline in recent months.
Many states are trying to assuage distressed farmers by announcing loan waivers. However, this would increase the pressure on the already-stretched fiscal deficits of these states, the report said.