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Modi govt's fiscal push for growth revival to hurt investor sentiment: UBS

Govt is already walking a 'tight-rope' to meet 2017-18 fiscal deficit target of 3.2% of GDP

Press Trust of India  |  New Delhi 

Fiscal Deficit, tax

The government has been under pressure to support the economy but any change in the roadmap can hurt global investor sentiment, says a UBS report.

According to the global financial services major, view favourably not just for its growth outlook, but also because of its robust/stable macro story reflected in falling and stable currency.


"A 0.2 per cent boost is not that material for growth per se. A change in the roadmap has potential to hurt sentiment among global investors," it said.

While the government can use the fiscal push to revive growth, the quality of government spending (vs consumption) matters more, UBS said.

The central government is already walking a "tight-rope" to meet the 2017-18 fiscal deficit target of 3.2 per cent of the

Moreover, it has to make up for the shortfall of 0.2 per cent of on a lower dividend transfer and there is also uncertainty regarding tax collections under in the near term.

India's economic growth slipped to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent in April-June as disruptions caused by spilled over to the third straight quarter amid a slowdown in activities.

The government has been under pressure to support the economy following the slowdown. Finance Minister has promised "appropriate actions" at the "right time" to revive the slowdown-hit economy and said the government is seized of the problem of private not picking up.

The report noted that part of the slowdown in economic growth comes from a temporary disruption due to the goods and services tax (GST) implementation and demonetisation, and growth is likely to normalise over upcoming quarters.

However, underlying demand momentum remains weak, as growth has been mostly supported by consumption while lags.

First Published: Sun, September 24 2017. 12:32 IST
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