Business Standard

Oct inflation data is a surprise: experts

Revision in the August numbers are of concern

Reuters  |  Mumbai 

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday.

Following are some of the experts commenting on the data:-

SHUBHADA RAO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YES BANK, MUMBAI

"This has come in below our expectations... with all probability it is likely that core momentum may have seen some easing.



"Even at 7.45, it is still above the comfort zone (of the central bank) and RBI (Reserve Bank of India) would want to see a sustained drop in this trend... I think we need to see a couple more months particularly in core trending lower to give some confidence to RBI.

"Clearly, a lot of these pressures are still evidently supply-side driven. So the fiscal consolidation has to be more meaningful to allow a more sustainable downtrend in trajectory."

LEIF ESKESEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR INDIA AND ASEAN, HSBC, SINGAPORE

"The data is a surprise. It shows food is lower than expected. But the underlying inflationary pressures are firm, and this number is not necessarily sufficient to change the Reserve Bank of India's reluctance to cut interest rates."

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA, ECONOMIST, AXIS BANK, MUMBAI

"The numbers are not significantly lower than what was estimated. What is also of concern is the revision in the August numbers.

"However, with the need for balance between growth and inflation, this increases the possibility of earlier easing in monetary policy. It is likely the projection for March (inflation) may be lower than RBI's estimate of 7.5 percent."

JYOTI NARASIMHAN, SENIOR PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, BANGALORE


"Despite the downtick, elevated will prevent the RBI from easing aggressively. The recent fuel subsidy cuts will stoke fuel in the coming months, and have secondary effects on core inflation, keeping well above 7.5 percent through the end of FY2012/13.

"With unlikely to recede substantially, we no longer expect the RBI to soften its stance and cut policy rates on 18 December to support flagging economic growth.

"With persistent and high inflation, IHS Global Insight now expects the RBI to ease only in early 2013, and cut the repo rate by 50 basis points in January."

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI

"The number is better than what most people had expected, but based on the past experiences there is a likelihood of the numbers getting revised.

"The Reserve Bank will wait till the headline falls by 100 basis points more. The government is putting pressure, but the Reserve Bank will not succumb to that pressure until the comes down to the comfort zone."

SUJAN HAJRA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANAND RATHI SECURITIES, MUMBAI


"The extent of slowdown in the is somewhat more severe than what we have been thinking, and the demand contraction embedded in today's number is more serious. The economic recovery may take slightly longer, but the Reserve is likely to wait for at least one more data before taking a call on cutting interest rates."

 

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Oct inflation data is a surprise: experts

Revision in the August numbers are of concern

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday.

Following are some of the experts commenting on the data:-

SHUBHADA RAO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YES BANK, MUMBAI

"This has come in below our expectations... with all probability it is likely that core momentum may have seen some easing.

"Even at 7.45, it is still above the comfort zone (of the central bank) and RBI (Reserve Bank of India) would want to see a sustained drop in this trend... I think we need to see a couple more months particularly in core trending lower to give some confidence to RBI.

"Clearly, a lot of these pressures are still evidently supply-side driven. So the fiscal consolidation has to be more meaningful to allow a more sustainable downtrend in trajectory."

LEIF ESKESEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR INDIA AND ASEAN, HSBC, SINGAPORE

"The data is a surprise. It shows food is lower than expected. But the underlying inflationary pressures are firm, and this number is not necessarily sufficient to change the Reserve Bank of India's reluctance to cut interest rates."

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA, ECONOMIST, AXIS BANK, MUMBAI

"The numbers are not significantly lower than what was estimated. What is also of concern is the revision in the August numbers.

"However, with the need for balance between growth and inflation, this increases the possibility of earlier easing in monetary policy. It is likely the projection for March (inflation) may be lower than RBI's estimate of 7.5 percent."

JYOTI NARASIMHAN, SENIOR PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, BANGALORE


"Despite the downtick, elevated will prevent the RBI from easing aggressively. The recent fuel subsidy cuts will stoke fuel in the coming months, and have secondary effects on core inflation, keeping well above 7.5 percent through the end of FY2012/13.

"With unlikely to recede substantially, we no longer expect the RBI to soften its stance and cut policy rates on 18 December to support flagging economic growth.

"With persistent and high inflation, IHS Global Insight now expects the RBI to ease only in early 2013, and cut the repo rate by 50 basis points in January."

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI

"The number is better than what most people had expected, but based on the past experiences there is a likelihood of the numbers getting revised.

"The Reserve Bank will wait till the headline falls by 100 basis points more. The government is putting pressure, but the Reserve Bank will not succumb to that pressure until the comes down to the comfort zone."

SUJAN HAJRA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANAND RATHI SECURITIES, MUMBAI


"The extent of slowdown in the is somewhat more severe than what we have been thinking, and the demand contraction embedded in today's number is more serious. The economic recovery may take slightly longer, but the Reserve is likely to wait for at least one more data before taking a call on cutting interest rates."

 

image
Business Standard
177 22

Oct inflation data is a surprise: experts

Revision in the August numbers are of concern

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday.

Following are some of the experts commenting on the data:-

SHUBHADA RAO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YES BANK, MUMBAI

"This has come in below our expectations... with all probability it is likely that core momentum may have seen some easing.

"Even at 7.45, it is still above the comfort zone (of the central bank) and RBI (Reserve Bank of India) would want to see a sustained drop in this trend... I think we need to see a couple more months particularly in core trending lower to give some confidence to RBI.

"Clearly, a lot of these pressures are still evidently supply-side driven. So the fiscal consolidation has to be more meaningful to allow a more sustainable downtrend in trajectory."

LEIF ESKESEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR INDIA AND ASEAN, HSBC, SINGAPORE

"The data is a surprise. It shows food is lower than expected. But the underlying inflationary pressures are firm, and this number is not necessarily sufficient to change the Reserve Bank of India's reluctance to cut interest rates."

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA, ECONOMIST, AXIS BANK, MUMBAI

"The numbers are not significantly lower than what was estimated. What is also of concern is the revision in the August numbers.

"However, with the need for balance between growth and inflation, this increases the possibility of earlier easing in monetary policy. It is likely the projection for March (inflation) may be lower than RBI's estimate of 7.5 percent."

JYOTI NARASIMHAN, SENIOR PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, BANGALORE


"Despite the downtick, elevated will prevent the RBI from easing aggressively. The recent fuel subsidy cuts will stoke fuel in the coming months, and have secondary effects on core inflation, keeping well above 7.5 percent through the end of FY2012/13.

"With unlikely to recede substantially, we no longer expect the RBI to soften its stance and cut policy rates on 18 December to support flagging economic growth.

"With persistent and high inflation, IHS Global Insight now expects the RBI to ease only in early 2013, and cut the repo rate by 50 basis points in January."

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI

"The number is better than what most people had expected, but based on the past experiences there is a likelihood of the numbers getting revised.

"The Reserve Bank will wait till the headline falls by 100 basis points more. The government is putting pressure, but the Reserve Bank will not succumb to that pressure until the comes down to the comfort zone."

SUJAN HAJRA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANAND RATHI SECURITIES, MUMBAI


"The extent of slowdown in the is somewhat more severe than what we have been thinking, and the demand contraction embedded in today's number is more serious. The economic recovery may take slightly longer, but the Reserve is likely to wait for at least one more data before taking a call on cutting interest rates."

 

image
Business Standard
177 22

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