Punjab's economy is expected to grow at a slower pace of 5.32 per cent in 2014-15 at constant prices (2004-05), compared with 5.73 per cent in the previous year, according to the Economic Survey presented in the state Assembly on Thursday. The Survey attributed the lower growth to the disappointing performance of agriculture which is likely to grow (minus) 2.36 per cent in the current financial year, against the positive growth of 2.35 per cent in 2013-14. However, the industry and service sectors held out hope for the state, with likely growth rate of 2.04 per cent and 9.58 per cent, respectively in 2014-15. This financial year, the gross state domestic product (GSDP) at constant prices is expected to touch Rs 1.83 lakh crore. In 2013-14, the GSDP was pegged at Rs 1.74 lakh crore, against Rs 1.64 lakh crore in 2012-13, a growth of 5.73 per cent, according to the quick estimates. The agriculture sector in Punjab is showing signs of a serious slowdown over the past few years.
The sector's growth rate has remained below two per cent in 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13, with growth turning negative in 2009-10 and 2012-13. The growth in agriculture sector is slowing down, as cropping intensity and irrigation potential have been fully exploited and the growth in productivity has also reached a saturation point, as very few research and development advances have taken place over a long period of time. The slow growth of agriculture sector has affected the overall growth of primary sector. Agriculture and livestock activities grew (-) 0.5 per cent in 2014-15 (according to Advance Estimates), against Rs 37,238 crore in last financial year. Last year, the primary sector registered a growth of 3.18 per cent, compared with 0.51 per cent in 2012-13. Further, according to Advance Estimates, GSDP from the secondary sector, which covers the manufacturing, construction and electricity sectors, is expected to touch Rs 49,477 crore in 2014-15, showing a growth of 2.04 per cent over the previous financial year. Also, GSDP from the tertiary sector which comprises trade, transport, banking & insurance and public administration, among others, is expected to increase to Rs 94,770 crore in 2014-15, a growth rate of 9.58 per cent over the last financial year.
- Agriculture likely to grow (-) 2.36% in the current financial year, against 2.35% in 2013-14
- Agri growth rate has remained sluggish in 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13
- Industry and services sectors are expected to register growth rates of 2.04% and 9.58%, respectively
- GSDP at constant price might touch Rs 1.83 lakh crore, against Rs 1.74 lakh crore in 2013-14
- The secondary sector is expected to touch Rs 49,477 crore, a growth of 2.04% over the previous financial year