World demand for Opec’s crude will decline next year as US shale producers and other rivals pump more, Opec
said on Wednesday, suggesting the oil market will see a surplus in 2018 despite an Opec-led output cut.
also reported a jump in its June output to levels above the forecast of average global demand for its crude this year and next, hindering efforts to reduce a glut if it persists.
officials are still upbeat on the outlook.
"We remain very optimistic ... to helping the market to rebalance itself," Opec
Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said at an industry conference in Istanbul.
Under the deal to support the market, Opec
is curbing output by about 1.2 million bpd while Russia and other non-Opec
producers are cutting half as much. With the glut slow to shift, producers agreed in May to prolong the accord until March 2018.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia will cut crude oil
shipments to its customers in August by more than 600,000 barrels per day to balance the rise in domestic consumption during the summer, while staying within its Opec
production commitment, a Saudi industry source said.
production has increased in recent weeks, in part due to a recovery in supplies from Libya and Nigeria, two members which were exempted from the supply cut as conflict had curbed their output.
In the report, Opec
said its output rose by 393,000 bpd in June to 32.611 million bpd, according to figures from secondary sources Opec
uses to monitor its supply, led by Nigeria and Libya and also due to extra barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
production data means Opec
has complied with 96 per cent of the cutback pledge, according to a Reuters calculation, down from more than 100 percent in May but still a high rate by Opec's historic standards.
"We are fully satisfied that member countries are maintaining a very high level of conformity," Barkindo said.