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US Fed expected to hold interest rates; may focus on lowering bond holdings

This is expected to signal a vote of confidence in the US economy

Reuters  |  Washington 

Janet Yellen
US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen

The United States (US) is expected to hold interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and possibly hint that it will start winding down its massive holdings of bonds as soon as September in what would be a vote of confidence in the US

The US central bank will issue its latest rates decision following the end of a two-day policy meeting at 2 pm EDT (18:00 GMT). Economists expect the Fed's benchmark lending rate to remain in a target range of 1.00 per cent to 1.25 per cent.

That would mark another pause in the monetary tightening campaign that the began in December 2015. The central bank has raised rates twice this year, including at its last policy meeting in June.

Wall Street analysts see little chance the will announce the start of the wind down of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. However, the Fed's policy statement may provide more visibility on when that might occur.

Citibank economists said in a note to clients that the Fed's rate-setting committee was more likely to say that the trimming would start soon. "(That would) signal that the committee plans to announce balance sheet reduction in September," they said in the note.

Reducing the balance sheet will unwind one of the Fed's most controversial tools used to fight the 2007-2009 and its aftermath.

After pushing rates nearly to zero in a bid to boost investment and hiring, the pumped over $3 trillion into the through purchases of US Treasury securities and government-backed mortgage debt to further reduce rates. That program drew criticism from Republican lawmakers in Congress.

The subsequent economic recovery, marked by strong and steady job gains, has pushed the to 4.3 per cent, near a 16-year low. policymakers have said labour market strength could eventually push too high.

The recently signalled it would begin to trim its balance sheet this year. said earlier this month that process could begin relatively soon and economists polled by Reuters expect the announcement will come in September.

But a slowdown in this year has caused jitters among some officials who are already concerned that has been below the central bank's 2 per cent target for five years.

The Fed's preferred measure of underlying dropped to 1.4 per cent in May. It was 1.8 per cent in February.

First Published: Wed, July 26 2017. 11:38 IST