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Expect strong support at 4,814

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The ended the week with a loss of 370-odd points, mainly on account of a sharp sell-off on Friday. The markets experienced in a narrow range, as the Sensex, after a negative start to the week, did well to recover partially by mid-week, but eventually slipped back to lower levels and ended at 17,095.

Among the index stocks surged over six per cent to Rs 424. ITC, and rallied four per cent each. Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, and were the other prominent gainers.

On the other hand, Infosys ended with a massive loss of nearly 16 per cent at Rs 2,403 as the markets were disappointed by the lower guidance for FY13. TCS also slumped over nine per cent. Hindalco, BHEL, Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, Wipro, Larsen & Toubro and ONGC were the other major losers.

Next week, the markets will look for cues, largely from the RBI policy on April 17. A liberal policy action will be the much-needed boost for the markets. Global cues and earnings season are the two other major events.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is likely to exert downward pressure as long as it sustains below 17,400. On the downside, the index has near support around 16,975, below which it can slip to 16,850-16,700.

The moved in a range of 120-odd points, touching a high of 5,307 and a low 5,185 (both on Friday) and ended the week with a loss of 115 points at 5,207.

The Nifty looks fairly weak on the daily charts, as it has struggled to cross the 20-day (short-term) moving average in the last four trading sessions. The momentum oscillators are also in favour of a down move on the daily charts.

The Nifty may test the 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) soon, and even break below it. The weekly charts indicate support at around 5,130, below which we could see prolonged weakness with downside targets at around 4,800-odd levels. However, in case the Nifty is able to sustain around 5,130, we could see a strong counter-rally by the bulls with upside target around 5,450.

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Counter rally on the cards?

Barring Monday, when the Sensex shed over 1.5 per cent, the markets more or less moved in a narrow band during the rest of the week.

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