Market rundown by Vinod Nair, Head of Research of Geojit Financial Services
"Market touched a new high led by the Government’s ideal plan to fix the credit growth and lack of private investment in the country, which was a key drag on the broad economic system. Ultimately it is giving a remedy to the NPA issues and capital adequacy of banks, which is an essential for credit growth."
3:48 PM Nifty Infra at 7-year high
3:40 PM Nifty Bank gained 3%
3:38 PM PSU Banks rally
3:36 PM Top Sensex gainers and losers
3:35 PM Broader Markets
Broader markets underpeerformed the benchmark indices with BSE midcap index up 0.4% and BSE Smallcap index down 0.2%
Markets at Close
The Indian market soared to a fresh record high on Wednesday as investors cheered mega recapitalisation package for banks and a Rs 7 lakh crore infra booster ahead of October F&O expiry.
S&P BSE Sensex ended over 33,000 for the first time ever. The index settled at new closing high of at 33,042 up 435 points for the day. Nifty50, on the other hand, also achieved new milestone, ending at fresh closing high of 10,295, up 87 points.
3:21 PM Sectoral Trend
Infosys Q2 results: Wealth creation story of large IT stocks is over
Infosys’ Q2FY2018 results are in line with the large peers in the industry – year-on-year growth in revenues and net profit stand at 1.5% and 3.3% respectively. TCS and Wipro have also posted poor single digit yoy growth in revenues or profits.
It is quite unfortunate that three key issues have been impacting the large IT companies including Infosys – first of all the ‘base effect’. Today India’s IT export basket of nearly $110 billion cannot maintain the kind of growth momentum the industry used to maintain in 1990s or a decade ago. IT export growth also got impacted by growing restrictive practices from the US government.
The problems of the industry further compounded by appreciation of rupee in 2017 – so far in this year, rupee has appreciated by 4.5%. Such significant appreciation of currency has partly led not only to Infosys’ revenue in rupee terms growing in poor single digit, but also significantly lower than the dollar revenue growth. READ MORE
3:01 PM Market Check
Edelweiss on Jindal Stainless (Hisar)
Rating - BUY
CMP - Rs 205
Target - Rs 329
We expect company's net sales/EBIDTA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 15%/19%/46% respectively between FY17-19E We believe, higher RoCE of JSHL (22%) (even on WACC adjusted basis) compared to European players (8-10%), burnished demand prospects and market leadership should lead to at par/premium valuation for the company with respect to European players. We are valuing the stock at par with European listed counterparts at 7x EV/EBIDTA, yielding
value of Rs 289/share. Additionally, we value the company’s investments in JSL (36.5% stake) at Rs 41/share to arrive at target price of Rs 329.
Why Murthy-Nilekani clash is unlikely at Infosys
In his outburst against the Infosys board, led by his protégé Nandan Nilekani, Infosys co-founder N R Narayana Murthy has hinted that the issue of governance failure he had earlier raised during Vishal Sikka’s tenure would be buried forever.
It is unlikely that the founders will get into a public spat like the Murthy-Seshasayee one earlier. Nor will Seshasayee, given his statement that bringing stability back at Infosys is priority. Sikka, who has signed a non-disparagement agreement with Infosys, has also remained silent.
Nilekani, who knows Murthy all too well, has already bought peace with his former boss. READ MORE
2:30 PM Pharma index slips over 1% in an otherwise firm market
2:13 PM PSU Bank index hits 52-week high; market-cap up by Rs 1.1 lakh crore
Nifty PSU Bank index hit a 52-week high of 3,980, surging 29% in intra-day trade on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on strong rally in state-owned banks after the government cleared Rs 2.11 lakh crore bank recapitalisation plan.
The combined market capitalization (market-cap) rose by over Rs 1-lakh crore in single day, post a huge rally in PSU Banks. India’s largest lender SBI and other PSU lenders in terms of market-cap added nearly Rs 1.10-lakh crore to stock investors’ wealth. READ MORE
1:56 PM Slips in trade
KIOCL was locked in 5% lower circuit at Rs 282.90 at 13:15 IST on BSE, with the stock declining on profit booking after logging gains in prior six trading days.
UBS on bank recapitalisation plan
The govt announced a bank recapitalization plan and a new road building program. This should be a boost for equity market sentiment, as it fuels growth recovery hopes. The recapitalisation amount seems adequate and may create a supportive environment for growth, but it may not drive growth by itself – currently weak credit demand reflects economic activity, not just the capital adequacy of SOE banks.
It may be negative for near-term bond/FX market sentiment, with a likely increase in India's debt-to-GDP. However, the scheme's impact on the fiscal deficit, liquidity and inflation is likely to be insignificant in the near term because of the way it's designed. The new road program doesn't alter the growth outlook for road spending or the capex cycle, in our view. In the near term, the Nifty may further overshoot our upside scenario of 10,000 for end-2017.
1:44 PM Reliance Nippon IPO oversubscribed within five minutes on first day
The initial public offer (IPO) of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management (RNAM) got oversubscribed 2.45 times soon after opening of bids, making it the first ever IPO to get full subscription within five minutes.
The IPO to raise an estimated Rs 1,542.42 crore opened on Wednesday morning and received bids for 10,48,57,278 shares against the total issue size of 4,28,40,000 shares (excluding anchor portion), as per data available with the NSE. READ MORE
1:31 PM Top Sensex gainers and losers
1:10 PM Markets at 1pm
NBFCs witness selling pressure
Shares of 12 non-banking financial firm fell by 1.61% to 7.1% at 12:04 IST on BSE after the government pledged to inject Rs 2.11 lakh crore in state-run banks.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company (down 7.1%), Edelweiss Financial Services (down 5.94%), Indiabulls Housing Finance (down 4.23%), Bajaj Finserv (down 3.45%), Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (down 3.1%), Manappuram Finance (down 2.97%), Bajaj Finserv (down 2.95%), IIFL Holdings (down 2.56%), Shriram Transport Finance Company (down 2.42%), LIC Housing Finance (down 2.4%), Muthoot Capital Services (down 1.88%) and Muthoot Finance (down 1.61%), edged lower.
Nifty Infra index hits 7-year high after govt announced Bharatmala project
Shares of infrastructure companies were in focus with the Nifty Infrastructure index hitting nearly seven-year high on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), after the Cabinet clears Rs 7 lakh crore Bharatmala project. The announcement came after market hours on Tuesday.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T), NCC, IRB Infrastructure, GMR Infrastructure, Siemens, Engineers India and Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) from the Nifty Infrastructure index were trading higher by upto 6% on the NSE.
KNR Constructions, Ashoka Buildcon, Sadbhav Engineering, Simplex Infrastructures and Gayatri Projects from the non-index stocks were up in the range of 5% to 9%. READ MORE
12:14 PM RCom nears record low on talk of closure of DTH business
Tepid debut: GIC Re falls on listing
Shares of General Insurance Corporation of India listed at Rs 857.50 on the National Stock Exchange, lower by 7 percent compared with issue price of Rs 912. The tepid debut comes despite the company raising Rs 11,372 crore from its IPO. The GIC issue was sold between October 11 and October 13 and was subscribed 1.38 times.
GIC Re’s issue is the third biggest in the domestic markets after Coal India and Reliance Power. Coal India had raised Rs 15,470 crore in October 2010 and Reliance Power raised Rs 11,700 crore in 2008. Last month, two insurance companies, SBI Life and ICICI Lombard, had raised Rs 8,400 crore and Rs 5,700 crore respectively through IPOs. READ MORE
HUL Q2 results out today: Here's what brokerages have to say
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is likely to report its September-quarter earnings later in the day today. The numbers will also be a reflection of how well the FMCG major has recovered from the recent GST turbulence.
For the quarter ended June 2017, HUL had posted flat volume growth as its trade network had begun destocking in June anticipating the new tax in July.
to find what brokerages expect from HUL numbers due today:
Govt's recapitalisation plan: Yield hardens on benchmark govt bond in early trade
The yield on the government's 10-year paper, benchmark paper, hardened by three basis points in opening trades, seeking further clarity on the recapitalisation plan.
The bond yield on the 10-year paper was ruling at 6.80-81 per cent range, according to data from Clearing Corporation of India.
On Tuesday, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds had eased to 6.78 per cent on Tuesday as against a close of 6.80 per cent on Monday, according to ICICI Bank report. READ MORE
Nomura on PSU bank recap, Bharatmala project
In our view, of all the measures announced, the larger-than-expected recapitalisation commitment to banks is growth positive, though it does have fiscal implications. The exact impact of the recap bonds on the fiscal deficit has not yet been clarified by the government, which stated that it depends on who issues the bonds, the modalities of which have not yet been finalised. Our bias is that the recap bonds will be shown as a below-the-line item and so will not have a direct bearing on the headline central government fiscal deficit, except the additional interest payments on these bonds. However, these recap bonds will add to the stock of government debt.
While the government is non-committal on this year's fiscal deficit target, we expect the government to announce a fiscal slippage to 3.5% of GDP in FY18 (vs. its target of 3.2%) sometime in December, because of its front-loaded spending and lower revenues. Finally, Bharatmala and other capex projects (railways, affordable housing) are positive for the medium term, but we do not expect them to influence near-term growth materially because of execution lags.
11:04 AM Markets hold on to gains
Morgan Stanley on bank recapitalisation
In the near term, all the SOE bank stocks are likely to go up meaningfully. However, we look for banks that will sustain this performance. This move will help corporate lenders in two ways: 1) breaking the NPL cycle and 2) removing the possibility of a larger SOE bank being asked to acquire an undercapitalised smaller SOE bank.
We believe that the biggest beneficiary of this move, on a sustained basis, will be SBI: We double upgrade our rating to overweight (OW). Smaller SOE banks – the stocks should do well in the near term, but it may take a long time to get ROEs to increase to double digits.
The corporate logo of financial firm Morgan Stanley is pictured on the company's world headquarters in New York, New York January 20, 2015. REUTERS
Geojit on Steel Authority of India
Rating – Hold
CMP - Rs 62
Target Price - Rs 65
The company is ailing with structural issues given its high cost structure and weak product mix. Further, we expect the company to continue to report losses at net level in FY18E and to be only marginally profitable in FY19E owing to higher depreciation and interest costs led by huge capacity expansion. We believe steel prices to remain firm in the near term.
Edelweiss on Infosys Q2FY18 results
Commentary on key issues: 1) CEO search is on track; 2) no merit in allegations of wrongdoing in acquisition of Panaya & severance payment to former CFO; and 3) design, consulting and technology services portfolio will continue to determine strategic direction. We believe, leadership vacuum is the key challenge for revenue growth and appointment of CEO is crucial for the stock’s rerating. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with target price of Rs 1,010.
Reliance Industries jumps 66 places in global m-cap ranking
Reliance Industries (RIL) has had a dream run over the past one year, with its market value almost doubling and the firm leapfrogging 66 places in the league table of the world’s most valuable firms.
The Mukesh Ambani-led firm ranks 111, against last year’s 177, Bloomberg data show. Some of the global majors Reliance overtook include Nike, Starbucks, Vodafone and Volkswagen. It also surpassed TCS, which ranked 122 last year. READ MORE
Panaya deal, new CEO, guidance: Analyst views on Infosys Q2 results
Infosys September 2017 (Q2FY18) results were a mixed bag. While the numbers met market expectations on the financial performance (revenue, profit after tax, etc) front, a cut in FY18 guidance to 5.5 – 6.5% came in as a surprise. The results were announced post market hours on Tuesday.
The stock opened marginally lower on Wednesday at Rs 921 levels. Click Here
is how leading research houses and brokerages have interpreted the statements
Govt to sell 5% stake in NLC at Rs 94 per share, may fetch Rs 800 cr
The Centre will sell up to 5 per cent stake in NLC India Ltd (NLCIL), formerly Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC). The company comes under Ministry of Coal.
The 5 per cent stake sale would fetch about Rs 800 crore to the exchequer. Floor price fixed at Rs 94 a share and it will be sold through a two-day offer for sale (OFS) beginning Wednesday. READ MORE
Index changes have a story to tell
Financial advisory, Motilal Oswal, provided an interesting “time-lapse” of the Nifty 50 index across a period of 15+ calendar years, starting January 2002. Changes in constituents and changes in the weights of individual stocks and sectors also give us an insight into long-term returns.
There was a key change in methodology in 2009. The Nifty started being weighted by free-float market capitalisation instead of absolute market cap. This reduced the importance of PSUs. READ MORE
Edelweiss on Asian Paints
Asian Paints’ (APL) Q2FY18 consolidated sales (up 15% YoY) came slightly ahead of estimates, while EBITDA (up 13.6% YoY) and adj. PAT (up 7.5% YoY) came in line with estimates. With continuing impact of GST within trade channel in July, decorative volumes grew ~8% YoY (in line with our estimates) though comparatively softer than Kansai Nerolac’s volume growth of 18% YoY and APL’s historical run-rate of >10%. With no price hikes in the quarter and sustained inflationary raw material scenario, gross margin plummeted by 308bps YoY to 41.3% (lowest in ~3 years). Anticipated volume recovery, price hikes, and government’s housing push lend growth and margin comfort. Maintain ‘BUY’ on dips
CRISIL on PSU bank recapitalisation
The Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation package for public sector banks (PSB) announced by the government on Tuesday is a credit positive and marks a major step in revitalising these institutions saddled with non-performing assets (NPAs).
PSBs need Rs 1.4 to 1.7 lakh crore additional capital to meet Basel III requirements by March 31, 2019, so the package is adequate. The government’s action sends a strong signal of support to PSBs and reinforces CRISIL’s belief that such backing will continue – an aspect that is factored into its ratings
Nomura on PSU bank recapitalisation
We are positively surprised by the quantum of the recapitalization and it matches our estimates of capital requirements for PSU banks for both NPA provisioning and some growth. Assuming the entire infusion is equity in nature (we are still unclear whether this is debt / equity), there would be significant dilution for minority investors, but given that current prices are higher than FY17 adjusted book values for most PSU banks, this recap package should drive a re-rating in PSU banks. Among our coverage stocks, we expect the highest positive impact on PNB (Buy rated).
9:35 AM Earnings Impact: HCL Tech
HCL Technologies, India's fourth-largest software services exporter, posted a 9.5 percent rise in second-quarter net profit, helped by higher revenue from its software services sector.
Net profit attributable to shareholders rose to Rs 2,207 crore ($339.12 million) in the three months ended Sept. 30, from Rs 2,015 crore in the same period a year earlier, HCL Technologies said on Wednesday.
9:33 AM 2.1 lk crore recapitalisation plan: SBI rallies
9:29 AM Earnings Impact: Infosys
9:28 AM Sectoral Trend: All sectoral indices were trading in green
9:27 AM Nifty Bank up over 2%
9:22 AM PSU Bank index gains 20% on bank recapitalisation plan
9:21 AM Top Sensex gainers and losers
9:19 AM Broader Markets
In broader markets, the BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices were trading higher by 0.8% each
9:18 AM Markets open at new highs
Benchmark indices opened at record high with Nifty crossing 10,300 following a mega recapitalisation package for banks and a Rs 7 lakh crore infra booster ahead of October F&O expiry.
At 9:17 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 32,952, up 346 points while the broader Nifty50 index wass ruling at 10,277, up 71 points
Technical calls from Prabhudas Lilladher
BUY BANK OF INDIA
CMP: Rs 141
TARGET: Rs 150
STOP LOSS: Rs 135
BUY ICICI BANK
CMP: Rs 266
TARGET: Rs 290
Nifty View by Prabhudas Lilladher
Nifty has been consolidating at these levels with a positive bias as long as 10,120 levels hold as crucial support level. The support for the day is seen at 10,150 while resistance is seen at 10,250.
44 stocks to report results for Q2 today
As many as 44 stocks are likely to report results for Q2 on Wednesday including Coromandel International, Emami, Engineers India, Exide Industries, Geojit Financial Services, HCL Technologies, Hindustan Unilever, IDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, M&M Financial Services, Mindtree, NIIT, PI Industries, RBL Bank, Tata Communications, V-Guard Industries, Syngene International etc. among others.
Reliance Nippon AMC garners Rs 462 crore
Reliance Nippon AMC on Tuesday raised a little over Rs 462 crore from anchor investors, ahead of its initial pubic offering which opens on Wednesday.
The company's IPO committee has finalised allocation 1,8,360,000 equity shares to 24 anchor investors at Rs 252, which is also the upper price band for the offer
9:06 AM Murthy unhappy
Infosys co-founder N R Narayana Murthy on Tuesday expressed his disappointment after the company’s board led by Nandan Nilekani gave a clean chit to former chief executive Vishal Sikka over allegations of governance failure in the Panaya acquisition.
“I stand by every question on poor governance raised in my speech to Infosys investors dated August 29, 2017. The fact remains that none of these questions has been answered by the Infosys board with the transparency it deserves,” Murthy said in a statement, adding he was “disappointed”. READ MORE
9:05 AM Infosys Q2
Infosys said second-quarter profit grew 3.2% to Rs 3,726 crore, beating estimates on the back of employee productivity as well as increased business from fixed-price projects to over half of its revenue, giving the firm more leeway in deploying resources, and improving margin to 24.2%.
Revenue grew 1.5% to Rs 17,567 crore in the three months to September compared to a year ago. Infosys cut its growth forecast for the year ahead by 200 basis points, much steeper than estimates, citing a weak second half of the financial year.
Infosys now expects to grow 5.5%-6.5% in constant-currency revenue for FY18, as against its April forecast of 6.5%-8.5%.
Bank recapitalisation plan
The government on Tuesday unveiled a Rs 2.11-lakh crore support for public sector banks (PSBs), struggling with mounting bad loans, in order to spur “genuine” infrastructure lending for upcoming mega projects.
The move is aimed at creating jobs and boosting economic growth, which slumped to a three-year low of 5.7% in the first quarter of the current financial year.
The government will pump in Rs 1.35 lakh crore of this recapitalisation through bonds. Another Rs 76,000 crore will come from budgetary support and banks tapping the market.
It will soon come out with “recapitalisation bonds” to support public sector banks, which account for 70 per cent of non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking system at Rs 7.33 lakh crore.
The Nifty futures on the Singaporean stock exchange were trading higher by around 74.50 points at 10298, a rise of around 0.72%, indicating a gap up opening for the Indian markets
Asian shares trod water in early trade on Wednesday, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar got a lift following a report Republican senators were leaning towards John Taylor to be the next Federal Reserve chief.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat in early trade.
Japan's Nikkei stock index was up 0.5% in early trading, on track for an unprecedented 17th straight session of gains after the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition in Sunday's election raised investors' hopes of continued yen-weakening stimulus.
8:59 AM Dow ends at record high
On Wall Street, stronger-than-expected results and forecasts from companies including 3M and Caterpillar also fuelled optimism about economic strength, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record high.
The Dow rallied on Tuesday, registering its biggest daily percentage gain in more than a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 167.8 points, or 0.72%, to end at 23,441.76, a record-high close. The S&P 500 gained 4.15 points, or 0.16%, to 2,569.13 and the Nasdaq Composite added 11.60 points, or 0.18%, to 6,598.43
8:35 AM Good Morning!
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First Published: Wed, October 25 2017. 15:30 IST