Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
The North Korean impasse did curtail risk appetite, especially with markets looking for cues to further the uptrend. Markets will however take positive cues from the cabinet reshuffle done over the weekend. It holds the potential for economic reforms reaching ground level, with less than two years before general elections.
3:42 PM Sectoral trend
All but two sectors settled trade in red.
3:39 PM Sensex heatmap at close
The BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indice shed 0.7% each.
3:36 PM Markets at close
The Sensex was trading at 31,702, down 190 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 9,912, down 61 points.
3:26 PM Nifty regains some lost ground, trades above 9,900
Top five Nifty losers
Oil prices fall
Benchmark global oil prices fell on Monday after a powerful North Korean nuclear test triggered a shift away from crude markets to assets perceived to be safer, such as gold.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 68 cents, or 1.3% at $52.07 a barrel.
Sunday’s test, and reports from Seoul that Pyongyang was making preparations for another missile launch, sparked another warning from Washington and drove South Korea’s stock market more than 1% lower. Japan’s Nikkei lost almost 1%.
Driven by the Korean losses, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.75%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.7%, while China's Shanghai Composite bucked the trend to gain 0.3% at close.
Europe trades lower
European markets were trading lower as North Korea's latest nuclear test prompted investors to rush to safe-haven assets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index and euro zone blue chips both fell more than 0.5% on opening before recovering some poise, while the UK’s FTSE slipped 0.2%.
Commodities enter super boom cycle
Global commodity markets, especially for resource commodities, have entered a super boom cycle, with no signs of breaks anytime soon. This means that Indian industries would have to bear with high raw material prices; users should prepare to pay more even as, in some cases, the impact is felt with some lag. READ FULL REPORT
India VIX snapped three-session long losing streak to clock its biggest yearly gain. The index added over 13% to 13.9550.
3:04 PM Markets check
At 3:00 pm, the Sensex was trading at 31,689, down 203 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 9,905, down 69 points.
SC stays Jaypee insolvency proceedings
The Supreme Court has stayed the National Company Law Tribunal's (NCLT's) order initiating insolvency proceedings against Noida-based Jaypee Infratech. The decision comes as a relief to over 30,000 homebuyers whose position became ambiguous after the August 9 NCLT order as their status was unclear under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy code. READ MORE
Gold jumps to 10-month high
Gold prices hit their highest in nearly 10 months on Monday after North Korea's latest and most powerful nuclear test drove investors towards safe-haven assets. CLICK HERE FOR FULL REPORT
Infosys promoters, including iconic co-founders N R Narayana Murthy and Nandan Nilekani, have offered to sell as many as 1.77 crore shares -- worth up to Rs 2,038 crore -- in the company's Rs 13,000 crore buyback offer.
The stock slipped nearly 3% to Rs 893 in intraday trade.
Three questions the govt must answer after RBI revealed number of demonetised notes that it got back. READ THEM HERE
Urjit Patel navigates the most difficult year in RBI's history
One year after, and an eventful year at that, Patel hasn’t really opened up to bankers and the media as much as they would have liked him to. But he has not shied away from talking tough on several issues — be it farm debt waivers or asking for more capital from the government for banks to take a deep haircut on bad debt resolution. Patel has also made it clear that the RBI’s autonomy would be upheld. READ MORE
1:00 PM Nifty Auto
The Nifty Auto index fell 0.9% after gaining nearly 2 %on Friday when most automakers reported August sales numbers. Hero MotoCorp, which reported a 10% rise in sales, was trading 1.7% lower.
12:42 PM KG Denim tumbles
KG Denim tumbled 10.08% to Rs 62.90 on BSE after net profit fell 90.2% to Rs 0.91 crore on 3.9% decline in net sales to Rs 146.74 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016.
India's petrol and diesel prices among Southeast Asia's costliest
Petrol and diesel were selling at Rs 69.26 and Rs 57.13 a litre last Friday, prices much higher than what prevailed on the same day in southeast asian nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia and neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan.
The difference between the petrol and diesel prices of India and Malaysia is mind boggling. Petrol price of Rs 32.19 a litre in Malaysia was less than half what prevailed in India last Friday. The diesel price in the Southeast Asian country at Rs 31.59 a litre was 44% lower compared to India.
On the same day, petrol and diesel were available in Indonesia at prices that were 41% and 24% lower compared to India.
Will D-Mart live up to the Street's expectations?
The Avenue Supermarts stock, which runs the retail chain under the D-Mart brand, has been hitting new highs on a regular basis on strong operational performance and expectation that the company will continue to post robust net profit growth over the next two to three years. The stock has already gained 63 per cent since listing.
Says an analyst at a domestic brokerage. “I don’t think people are looking at one year forward earnings. The reason for the sharp run in price could be low floating stock, strong business model, promoter quality, and the scarcity premium such businesses bring among others. On a fundamental basis, the one year forward estimates cannot be justified, those buying now are looking at a scalable business from a 3-5 year holding period.”
READ FULL STORY HERE
11:47 AM BUZZING STOCK
AU Small Finance Bank rose 1.18% to Rs 557.55 on BSE after the bank said it obtained certificate of registration to act as a corporate agent from the insurance regulator.
Railway stocks rise
Railway related stocks gained up to 5% intraday after Piyush Goyal became Railway Minister in recent Cabinet reshuffle.
BEML, Titagarh Wagons, Texmaco Rail, Stone India and Kernex Microsystems gained between 1-5% on hopes of major developments in railway sector by Goyal who has done great job in coal sector.
Rajdhani Express. Photo: Reuters
Apex Frozen Foods, that deals in aquaculture products, made a stellar debut on the bourses on Monday by listing at Rs 199.90 on the BSE, over 14% premium to its issue price of Rs 175.
The stock rallied as much as 20% against issue price to hit its upper circuit of Rs 209.85 on the BSE. READ MORE
Shares of Cadila Healthcare rose 2% intraday as it has received final approval from USFDA.
Zydus Cadila has received the final approval from the USFDA to market Mycophenolate Mofetil for injection USP, 500mg/vital.
GTPL Hathway rose 2.95% to Rs 136 on BSE after the company said it bagged multiple orders worth Rs 48.16 crore from Government of Gujarat.
Coal India gained over 2% after the coal miner said that India is not facing any scarcity of coal and the output of the compnay is more than the country's power demand. The mining behemoth's interim Chairman and Managing Director Gopal Singh also said that there would be no privatisation of the state-owned mining major.
India most expensive market on forward earnings multiple
India is now the most expensive market in the world, as measured by its price-to-earnings multiple for the next one year. Nifty 50 companies traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of over 20 times based on calendar year 2017 dollar estimates, making India the most expensive market in the world, data collated from Bloomberg and a brokerage report showed.
Benchmark Nifty and Sensex were the top performing indices year to date, behind only Mexico, with the Nifty 50 clocking a gain of 29.3%
Adani Enterprises slips
Adani Enterprises fell over 2% after reports that the company appears to be at odds with the state of Queensland over royalties for its Carmichael coal project, just days after the Indian company said it would soon break ground on the Australian mine.
Queensland is still negotiating with Adani over the details of its royalties agreement for the mine, despite a deal being officially reached on May 30, the Guardian Australian reported on Sunday citing a state government spokesperson.
READ FULL REPORT HERE
Equity-oriented MF schemes to offer high double-digit returns to investors
Domestic mutual funds bought stocks worth close to Rs16,500 crore in August, the highest ever equity investments in a single month, as households moved from physical assets to financial assets, driven by positive real rates, improving equity returns and better growth prospects, ET reported.
Equity-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes continue to offer high double-digit returns to investors. In the past one year, barring pharmaceutical funds, international funds and information technology (IT) funds, all other sectoral fund categories have not only yielded double-digit returns, but also performed better than the key stock indices.
During the same period, the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex delivered returns of 13.48% and 12.06%, respectively.
Nomura on economic data
India’s manufacturing PMI moved back into the expansion zone in August, led by a rise in domestic orders and output, suggesting that disruptions related to the new good and services tax (GST) seen in June and July appear to be getting resolved.
Given that the Q2 GDP disappointment was mainly due to GST-effects on the manufacturing sector, this is good news as cash-intensive services sectors have already started to recover. We remain comfortable with our view that growth is headed higher and we expect real GDP growth to average 7.4% y-o-y in H2 2017 from 5.9% in H1 2017, as the economy recovers from the last nine months of disruptions.
Dixon Tech, Bharat Road Network to launch IPOs this week, eye Rs 1,200 cr
Two companies -- Dixon Technologies and Bharat Road Network -- are headed to the market with their initial share sale offers this week to raise an estimated Rs 1,200 crore.
The IPOs of both will be open for subscription during September 6-8.
Dixon Technologies, a consumer electronics manufacturer, has fixed a price band of Rs 1,760-1,766 per share for its initial public offering (IPO), through which it aims to raise about Rs 600 crore. READ MORE
9:39 AM Auto sales impact
Tata Motors which is on a turnaround drive, gained 0.83 %, as it saw its domestic commercial vehicles sales grow by 24.35% in the July-August period after a decline of 15.62% in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal.
9:32 AM Stocks in News
JM Financial fell 1.3% after it was appointed as the transaction advisor to the government's over Rs 37,000 crore stake sale in HPCL to ONGC. HPCL and ONGC were trading completely flat.
9:29 AM Sectoral Trend
Most sectoral indices were trading in red dragged by banking and financial indices. Only Auto and metal indices were trading in green on NSE.
9:20 AM Top gainers and losers on BSE Sensex
9:19 AM Broader Markets
In broader markets, BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices were trading completely flat, down 0.03% each
9:17 AM Markets open
Domestic equity markets open on a flat note on Monday, tracking mixed global cues as markets remain jittery after fresh nuclear test by North Korea and claims that it tested a hydrogen bomb over the weekend.
At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 31,839, down 53 points while the broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 9,968 down 6 points.
Jan Aushadhi: Can it disrupt India’s $15 billion pharma market?
Started in 2008 but renewed recently by PM Modi, Jan Aushadhi is a Government of India initiative to promote quality generic-generic drugs at affordable prices. This scheme faced supply-related issues earlier which are being addressed by the current government. Drug prices under this scheme are 50-90% lower as compared to those of branded generic medicines.
Our recent visit to one such Jan Aushadhi store in Mumbai suggests increasing acceptance for this scheme. If the model scales up and there is a shift from brands towards generics, then it could be a cause of concern for the major India-focussed pharma players.
(Source: CLSA report)
Moody's on NTPC
Moody's Investors Service has said that the the Government of India's (Baa3 positive) sale of its 6.6% stake in NTPC Limited (Baa3 positive) has no impact on the company's Baa3 issuer rating.
After the sale, the government will continue to hold a majority stake of 63.1% in NTPC. The company's ratings remain supported by its strategic importance to the Indian economy, given its position as India's largest power generation company. NTPC's Baa3 issuer rating reflects its baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa3. The rating does not factor in any uplift from the government due to the high baa3 BCA relative to the Baa3 sovereign rating.
Nifty Outlook by Devang Shah
Short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 9,685 levels and is expecting target of 10,300-10,500 levels in the short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and is expecting targets in the range of 12,000-12,200 levels in the medium term.
L&T – BUY
CLOSE – Rs 1139.70
TARGET – Rs 1170/1200
GODREJ INDUSTRIES - BUY
CLOSE: Rs 625
TARGET: Rs 650/680
9:11 AM Risk-reward is unfavourable for equities in the near-term: Abhay Laijawala of Deutsche Equities India CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL INTERVIEW
Abhay Laijawala, managing director and head of research, Deutsche Equities India
9:09 AM We are bullish on India in medium to longer term: Hugo Erken, Jan Lambregts CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL INTERVIEW
While we continue to remain optimistic in the long-term, we expect continued volatility in the short-term with downward bias till October end. We expect the primary markets to succumb to the liquidity pressures soon in terms of steep fall in valuation multiple of forthcoming IPOs and also newly listed-IPOs. We advice those investors, who were lucky to make substantial profits in the recently listed-IPOs to be smart and take out the profits from the over-valued stocks
(Source: G.Chokkalingam, Founder & Managing Director, Equinomics Research)
Top technical calls from Prabhudas Lilladher:
BUY AMARA RAJA BATTERIES
CMP: Rs 800.75
TARGET: Rs 865
STOP LOSS: Rs 760
CMP: Rs 1846.30 '
TARGET: Rs 2000
STOP LOSS: Rs 1730
CMP: Rs 1255.20
TARGET: Rs 1365
EMKAY GLOBAL ON THE AUTO SECTOR
Wholesale volume growth in Aug'17 was robust across segments (Tractors: ~23%; CVs: ~22%; PVs: ~19%, 2Ws: ~15%, yoy), as dealers built up inventory ahead of the upcoming festive season (Dusshera, Diwali festivals) in September/October. Last year, inventory build-up at dealer ends was witnessed in September as the festive season coincided with the month of October.
The positive surprise in Aug'17 came from CVs, where growth was over 20% yoy, due to dealer inventory stocking, higher replacement demand, increase in demand from infrastructure segment and easing of supply constraints at OEM ends. PVs and 2Ws also logged in double-digit growth, aided by strong demand from rural areas and government employees.
Several OEMs, including Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M; Auto), Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj Auto logged better than expected numbers. Going forward, we believe FY18 would witness double-digit volume growth in PVs, 2Ws and Tractors, led by strong rural demand, product launches and reducing cost of ownership. Our top picks in the OEM space are M&M, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors
India is said to emerge as the third-biggest car market by 2020
Technical check on the markets
Nifty has provided a breakout from a symmetrical triangular pattern with a buy crossover in its momentum indicator MACD on the daily charts. The volumes have been increasing with increase in price which is also a short term positive for the bulls.
Now, on the upside, the immediate resistance is pegged at 10050 levels and thereafter 10137 levels whereas the support on the lower side is pegged at 9940 levels and below those 9900 levels. There is not much of evidence whether the fresh leg up has started or not as still there aren’t much of impulse move on the way up, hence one shouldn’t be aggressively long on the Index.
(Source: Anand Rathi Research)
Nifty Outlook by Angel Broking
Time-wise pain continues, focus on individual stocks
Markets are undergoing a typical phase during which traders struggle to find clear direction in the index. At such times, they tend to find alternatives in individual stocks as the picture can be much clearer than the benchmarks.
Looking at the weekly chart, we continue to mention that the market has slipped into consolidation mode with a short term perspective and hence, traders should ideally avoid trading aggressively. 9,920 – 9,850 would be seen as immediate and a crucial support zone.
Click here for stock recos
SBI on economic growth
We believe GDP growth in current fiscal will remain weak. Q2 GDP numbers are likely to be closer to Q1. We however see, GDP growth picking up pace in Q3 and in Q4 the growth is likely to cross 7%. We are hopeful of a better Q4, but that is crucially dependent on outcome of resolution of stressed assets that falls due in Q4
Oil markets remain volatile
Oil markets were volatile on Monday, supported by shutdowns of U.S. production following Hurricane Harvey, but pressured by an expected downturn in crude demand as the storm knocked out refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
Harvey, which made landfall along the Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana last week, knocked out almost a quarter of the entire US refining capacity, causing a price spike RBc1 and supply gap for fuels like gasoline, which traders around the world have been scrambling to fill.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $47.42 barrel, 13 cents above their last settlement.
However, international Brent crude oil futures were at $52.48 per barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.5% from their last close.
EDELWEISS ON MARUTI
Our recent meeting with Mr. Ajay Seth, CFO, Maruti Suzuki (MSIL), bolsters our confidence about the company’s bright future prospects. Key takeaways: a) we believe True Value, MSIL’s used vehicles business, will be a key growth kicker in next 5 years; b) Phase I of Rohtak facility (R&D centre) has been completed, while Phase II is expected to be completed in 2019-20. Consequently, MSIL’s products designing will receive a boost and also make it more agile in India-specific product launches; and c) we estimate near-term margins to be tepid impacted by start-up costs of the Gujarat plant and surge in commodity costs. Maintain ‘BUY’.
FPIs hooked to debt market, total inflows this year hits $20 bn
Foreign portfolio investors were buyers in the Indian debt market for the seventh month in a row in August, taking their total investment to $20 billion so far this year.
In August, overseas investors pulled out $2 billion from stock markets while they pumped in $2.40 billion in debt.
The significant inflow in August follows a net inflow of Rs 1.16 lakh crore in the previous six months from February- July 2017. In January, FPIs withdrew more than Rs 2,300 crore from the debt market. READ MORE
Market outlook for the day
Today the markets are likely to open on flat note. All emerging markets are trading mixed. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 9900 on declines and 10100 on advances: SMC Global
Apex Frozen Foods to make a debut today
Apex Frozen Foods is set to make a debut on exchanges today with issue price fixed at Rs 175 per share. The Rs 152-crore initial public offer was oversubscribed 6.14 times, receiving bids for 3.8 crore equity shares against the IPO size of 62.1 lakh shares (excluding anchor investors' portion).
The retail investors’ category oversubscribed 8.53 times and the non-institutional investor's category 7.82 times while the reserved portion of qualified institutional investors oversubscribed 1.91 times.
COMMENT: Worried about global cues
It’s been an action-packed weekend with nine new union ministers, including four former top bureaucrats, taking oath on Sunday. The entrants to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ministerial council have a job at hand to accelerate reforms and improve governance. The outlook is a cautious start.
Global cues are not looking good after North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb on Sunday. Reports say it was a ‘perfect success’ and energy from the underground explosion was about six times stronger than last year’s nuclear test. US President Donald Trump said he has many military options and is likely to raise economic sanctions and halt trade with countries dealing with North Korea
(Source: Amar Ambani, head of research, IIFL)
Infosys buyback: Promoters offer to sell shares worth Rs 2,038 cr
Infosys promoters, including iconic co-founders N R Narayana Murthy and Nandan Nilekani, have offered to sell as many as 1.77 crore shares -- worth up to Rs 2,038 crore -- in the company's Rs 13,000 crore buyback offer.
The promoters group -- which includes most of the founders and their families -- have expressed their intention to be part of the company's first buyback plan in its over three-decade history and have offered to tender a maximum of 1.77 crore shares.
At a buyback price of Rs 1,150 per share, this could mean a windfall of Rs 2,038.94 crore for the promoter group, if all the shares tendered by them are accepted in the buyback offer. READ MORE
8:53 AM Cabinet Reshuffle
In symbolism as well as an eye for detail, the reshuffle of the Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi-led Council of Ministers on Sunday morning was aimed at the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Sitharaman is the first woman to hold the portfolio independently. Former prime minister Indira Gandhi had held it as additional charge.
Piyush Goyal, one of the performing ministers, has been put in charge of the railway ministry. He has also retained the coal ministry. His predecessor in the ministry, Suresh Prabhu — who had offered to quit recently after a string of train accidents — has been moved to commerce and industry, Sitharaman’s previous portfolios.
Nine new ministers were sworn in by President Ramnath Kovind on Sunday morning. Four ministers of state — Dharmendra Pradhan, Sitharaman, Goyal and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi — were promoted to Cabinet rank. READ MORE
North Korea tests hydrogen bomb
North Korea detonated its sixth and most powerful nuclear test on Sunday, Japan and South Korea said, hours after Pyongyang said it had developed an advanced hydrogen bomb that possesses great destructive power.
Japanese and South Korean meteorological officials said an earthquake detected near the North’s test site - measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at magnitude 6.3 - was around 10 times more powerful than previous detonations.
The move is a direct challenge to US President Donald Trump, who hours earlier had talked by phone with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe about the escalating nuclear crisis in the region.
The Nifty50 futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange were trading 27.50 points lower at 9,986.50 indicating a flat opening for the domestic market.
8:44 AM Asian Markets edged lower
The Japanese yen, gold and sovereign bonds all rose on Monday as North Korea’s latest nuclear test provoked the usual knee-jerk shift to safe havens, though equity losses were modest amid expectations the flare-up would prove fleeting.
Japan’s Nikkei did not take the news well, losing 0.9%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.4% with South Korea’s main index down 0.6%.
8:43 AM Wall Street ends higher
Wall Street gained modestly on Friday as a tepid US jobs report kept expectations muted for another interest rate hike this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.46 points, or 0.18%, to end at 21,987.56, the S&P 500 gained 4.9 points, or 0.20%, to 2,476.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.67 points, or 0.1%, to 6,435.33.
8:42 AM Good Morning and welcome to market's live blog. Catch all the live market action here
First Published: Mon, September 04 2017. 15:33 IST