Market rundown by Mr. Anand James, Chief Market Strategist of Geojit Financial Services
"Profit booking in some PSBs and derivatives’ expiry kept markets guessing even as global peers remained on the backfoot ahead of a bunch of central bank meetings. However, sectoral cues kept markets buoyant with firm metal prices leading metal and mining companies higher while small and midcap segments outperformed the broad market indices on anticipation of better outcomes from the MSMEs meeting with the GST council scheduled on Sunday."
3:41 PM Sectoral trend
3:38 PM Top Sectoral Gainer: Nifty Metal index
3:37 PM Nifty PSU Bank index snap's Wednesday's 30% rally
3:35 PM Top Sensex gainers and losers
3:34 PM Broader Markets
Broader markets ended at fresh highs too. the BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indeces were trading higher by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively
3:32 PM Markets at close
Benchmark indices rose in the last leg of the trade to ended the day at fresh highs at October expiry with Nifty50 surpassing 10,350-mark.
S&P BSE Sensex settled at new high of 33,147, up 104 points for the day. Nifty50, on the other hand, also achieved new milestone, ending at fresh closing high of 10,334, up 39 points.
3:19 PM Buzzing Stock
Saksoft rose 6.83% to Rs 223 on BSE after the company's promoter SAK Industries acquired 0.94% stake in the company.
3:13 PM Markets at fresh highs
Sensex rose as much as 154 points to hit the record high of 33,196 , surpassing its previous milestone of 33,117 hit on Oct 25 while Nifty gained as much as 40 points to hit 10,355, surpassing the last high of 10,340 hit on Oct 25.
3:00 PM Markets at 3pm
Centrum on GSK Pharma
We maintain our Sell rating on GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GSK) and revise our target price to Rs1,525 (earlier Rs1,390) based on 24x March’19E EPS of Rs63.4. GSK’s Q2FY18 results exceeded our and consensus estimates. GSK revenue grew by 5%, EBIDTA margin improved 540bps to 23.0% and net profit grew 27% YoY.
GSK’s pharma segment grew by 6.3% during the quarter. That said, the company has a strong presence in the vaccines segment and is likely to derive growth from the same. Key risks to our assumptions include faster-than-expected growth in the domestic market and higher growth of its flagship brands. We recommend a switch to other pharma companies, Abbott India or Sanofi India, due to GSK’s rich valuations.
2:58 PM Khadim India Limited IPO opens on November 02, 2017. Price Band: Rs 745 to Rs 750
The surge in stock prices of corporate banks and telecom stocks over the past few days and the continued strong performance of metal stocks further reduce the overall investment reward-risk balance. For investors with large positions in the abovementioned sectors, it would make sense to book some profits at current levels. The real problem is finding substitute ideas. We face the same problem given 30% position in the abovementioned sectors in our Model Portfolio.
(Source: Report by Sanjeev Prasad, Co-Head and Managing Director at Kotak Institutional Equities)
Axis Bank asset quality may deteriorate more than expected, says Moody's
Global ratings agency Moody's on Thursday said private lender Axis Bank's asset quality may deteriorate further and more than what was previously expected over the next 12-18 months.
In addition, compared to the other rated Indian banks, the bank has been a laggard in recognising its asset quality problems, a credit negative for its credit quality, Moody's said in its statement. READ MORE
HDFC Securities on HUL
We expect Revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 12%/18%/20% respectively over FY17-20E. HUL’s high valuation is justified, considering consistent market share gain with margin expansion and strong RoCE. We expect HUL to be a key beneficiary of GST and premiumisation. We value HUL based on 42x P/E on Sep-19EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs 1,401. We maintain BUY recommendation.
Result review: Mindtree
Mindtree’s 2.1% growth in 2QFY18 in constant currency (CC) terms was below our expectation of 3.5%. However, 90bps of cross currency tailwind helped the company to deliver 3% QoQ growth in USD terms. Though were expecting only ~6%-7% in USD revenue growth for FY18 against company’s guidance of low double-digit growth at the start of the year (which was lowered to high single-digit growth post 1QFY18), we were expecting a good performance from Mindtree in a seasonally strong 2Q.
Post 2QFY18, we have retained our Sell rating on Mindtree with a September 2018 target price of Rs426 based on 11.0x September 19E EPS (20% discount to the target P/E multiple we have assigned to Infosys and TCS). Our EBIT margin and EPS estimates for FY19 and FY20 have been increased as we have decreased the capex number (current run-rate has been fairly muted), resulting in lower depreciation. While the stock price is down ~40% from its life-time high, we see more downside.
(Source: Report by Girish Pai, Head of Equity Research, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities)
RCom shares fall 5% as the company plans to shut down 2G operations
Continuing to fall for the second straight session, shares of Reliance Communications today fell by nearly 5 per cent amid buzz that the debt-ridden company is planning to shut down its wireless telephony business.
After a weak opening, shares of the company further lost 4.55 per cent to Rs 15.70 - 52-week low - on BSE.
US Fed meeting preview
At the Oct 31-Nov 1 meeting, we expect the Fed to recognise the economy is sound despite hurricane activity, while maintaining its close watch on the incoming data on inflation. We expect the Fed to next raise rates at its December meeting, resuming its previously established gradual pace.
Rates markets are not yet focused on the November 1 FOMC meeting statement, in part because investors do not expect meaningful changes in the language. Instead, investors are consumed by uncertainty over the next Fed Chair and the prospects for tax reform before year-end.
(Source: Morgan Stanley)
5 non-A group stocks zoom over 100% in October
Sanwaria Consumer, Shree Ganesh Biotech (India), Avon Lifesciences, Polo Queen Industries and Shiva Granito are five of the non-A group stocks that saw their market value zoom in the range of 140% to 210%, so far in the month of October.
Except Sanwaria Consumer which in B group and featured in the S&P BSE Smallcap index, the remaining four stocks trading under XD, XT and M segment on the BSE. READ MORE
BSE PSU index hits highest level since December 2010
Shares of public sector undertaking (PSU) companies including banks are on a roll with the BSE PSU index hitting nearly seven-year high after strong rally in metal, banking, oil & gas sector stocks.
Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) were up more than 10% each in intra-day trade, while, Engineers India, NLC India, IFCI, Union Bank of India, NMDC, IDBI Bank, Corporation Bank and Punjab National Bank (PNB) from the index up in the range of 5% to 8% on the BSE. READ MORE
Unlike peers, HCL Technologies sure-footed
HCL Technologies’ September quarter results were mixed — the growth in top line was below analysts' estimates, but the operating margin performance was in line with expectations. However, the management’s commentary was positive and could buoy the sentiment.
The stock, which dipped nearly four per cent intra-day, erased the losses towards close, ending just 0.7% lower. Revenues grew 2.3% sequentially at Rs 12,434 crore, below the three-per-cent-level pegged by analysts. READ MORE
Markets are discounting BJP victory in Gujarat elections
With the Election Commission (EC) calling elections in Gujarat, analysts believe political considerations are likely to play a more dominant role in driving economic decisions. Markets at current levels, though are pricing in a BJP victory to some extent, they are likely to trade sideways till the final outcome is known.
Between now and the general elections (likely in May 2019) there are 12 assembly polls, which analysts say, in a way will also be interpreted as a referendum on the Modi-led government's two key reforms - the note ban drive and goods and services tax (GST) implementation. READ MORE
1:00 PM Market Check at 1 pm
Optimism on PSU banks justified, but selectively
In an extended Diwali party for public sector banks (PSBs), the mega-bailout announced by the government on Tuesday pushed their stocks to record the biggest single-day gain on Wednesday. Big or small, the entire pack was buzzing with gains ranging between 18% and 41%.
While giants such as the State Bank of India (SBI), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bank of Baroda (BoB) spiralled 27-41 per cent, smaller peers such as Canara Bank, Bank of India, Union Bank, Indian Bank, Allahabad Bank and IDBI Bank jumped 20-35%. READ MORE
Slips in trade
PI Industries lost 5.94% to Rs 735.25 on BSE after net profit dropped 20.75% to Rs 80.34 crore on 3.13% rise in net sales to Rs 561.08 crore in Q2 September 2017 over Q2 September 2016.
12:13 PM Nifty PSU Bank index pares gains to trade 1% lower
11:53 AM Buzzing stock
GVK Power & Infrastructure rose 4.95% to Rs 16.33 at on BSE after the company confirmed that it received the order for Navi Mumbai Airport.
11:36 AM Top Sensex gainers and losers
11:21 AM Market Check
10:59 AM Buzzing in Trade
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) was up 3% at Rs 1,243 on the BSE after the company announced that its construction arm has won orders worth Rs 3,551 crore across various segment. The stock had rallied 6% on Wednesday.
“The company’s transportation infrastructure & water effluent treatment business have jointly bagged an order worth Rs 1,123 crore from a prestigious government client for design and construction of smart trunk infrastructure with roads, storm water drains, water supply network, sewerage network and others,” L&T said in a press release. READ MORE
Gains from virtual currencies are taxable
While virtual currencies like Bitcoin are gaining popularity, there is still lack of clarity on how they should be taxed. Many buyers of cryptocurrencies, therefore, don’t pay tax on the gains they make on selling them.
Software developer Pawan Bharti recently sold Bitcoin worth Rs 55,000 after his investment doubled in within three months. In the last week of July, one Bitcoin was around Rs 1.74 lakh. Recently, it has gone over Rs 3.85 lakh, an appreciation of over 121 per cent. The virtual currency, however, can be bought in smaller units. READ MORE
Polaris Consulting zooms 20% on delisting plan; stock hits 16-year high
Polaris Consulting & Services was locked in upper circuit of 20% at Rs 291, hitting an over 16-year high, after the company said its board will meet on October 31, 2017, to consider proposal of voluntary delisting of the equity shares. The stock of IT software products Company trading at its highest level since May, 2001.
“The board of directors of the company has been scheduled to meet on October 31, 2017, to consider proposal of voluntary delisting of the equity shares of the Company,” Polaris Consulting & Services said in a regulatory filing. READ MORE
ITC gets future-ready as FMCG challenges grow
Diversified conglomerate ITC has a target to touch Rs 1 lakh crore by 2030 and it hopes to do this by riding the consumption boom in India. While the vision has long been spelt by the management, challenges in execution remain. The pace of growth of the Rs 3 lakh crore fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is key.
A combination of demonetisation in November 2016 and introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) in July has ensured that the rate of growth of the domestic FMCG market has slowed in the last few quarters. READ MORE
Valuation gap between public sector and private banks narrows
The rally in public sector bank (PSB) stocks after the announcement of the government’s recapitalisation plan have narrowed their valuation gap with private sector banks.
Earlier, a typical private bank was nearly four times as expensive as a PSB on average, the gap is now down to 3x. PSBs added Rs 1.19 lakh crore to their combined market capitalisation on Wednesday, taking it past their book value in 2016-17. In contrast, private banks saw a marginal dip in their market capitalisation, led by HDFC Bank.
PSBs are now trading at 1.15 times their book value or net worth per share during 2016-17 on average, up from a valuation multiple of 0.9x on Tuesday. In comparison, the private banks' valuation ratio declined marginally to 3.42x their book value from 3.45x. READ FULL REPORT HERE
9:41 AM Earnings Impact: HUL
9:33 AM Ahead of earnings: YES Bank
9:25 AM Sectoral Trend
9:21 AM Nifty PSU Bank index extends gains
9:20 AM Top Sensex gainers and losers
9:18 AM Broader Markets
In broader markets, both BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices were little changed
9:17 AM Markets Open
Benchmark indices opened marginally lower following negative global cues ahead of October F&O expiry scheduled later in the day.
At 9:17 am the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,005, down 37 points while the broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 10,284, down 10 points
The “Great Re-cap”, as it could possibly be remembered surprised the street positively. The finer details and whether the re-caps impact is neutral on the fiscal side are things which need to be evaluated. Having said that, the freeing up of credit in the PSU banking system is a positive. PSU banks were sitting on a huge pile of cash which was earlier parked in G Sec could now be better utilized toward a banks actual purpose i.e. borrow from savers and extend credit to industry. Further from a market participation perspective, this segment has been an underperformer.
In fact, the weight of the banking and financial services sector in the Nifty index is around 37%, of which the share of the PSU bank segment had fallen to below 5%. Todays move will see this number moving up with the PSU banks taking the indices to new highs. Unfortunately, the same bump up did not happen to so many stocks, especially in the non-PSU BFSI stocks. This possibly was because of the money rotation from non-PSU stocks to PSU stocks, led by under ownership as well as undervaluation
(Source: Kunj Bansal - Executive Director & CIO – Equity , Centrum Wealth Management)
Today's Picks: 26 October, 2017
State Bank of India
Current price: Rs 325
Target price: Rs 315
Keep a stop at Rs 329 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 318 and Rs 320. Book profits at Rs 315.
Larsen & Toubro
Current price: Rs 1,204
Target price: Rs 1,225
Keep a stop at Rs 1,190 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 1,215 and Rs 1,220. Book profits at Rs 1,225.
Click here for more
Edelweiss on HCL Tech
Despite tepid revenue growth, management is confident of meeting lower-end of 10.5-12.5% CC revenue growth guidance owing to robust bookings during H1FY18 and strong pipeline. The company continued its strong focus on Mode-3 services, extending its relationship with IBM and restructuring its joint venture (JV) with DXC into IP-partnership.
With companies progressing to large IT-service providers from small boutique enterprises to scale up their digital journey, we remain confident on HCLT’s long-term growth prospects. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of Rs 1,041 (Rs 1,058 earlier), as we marginally cut our revenue estimates to reflect weak Q2FY18.
Stocks which may see some volatility on expiry day
HDFC Bank: On the D-1, the stock has witnessed low rollovers of 59% into November. The near month OI of ~10.23mn shares is 6 days average daily volume in cash market. With futures trading at a discount to cash market, the counter has seen reverse arbitrage positions (sell cash and buy futures) during the month. There are open positions left in the SLBM segment as well. Roll levels have expanded from ~12bps to ~28bps (profit to short roller) in the last couple of days. Hence we expect long roll arbitrage positions to buy back the underlying in the VWAP.
NTPC: Low rollovers of 34% have taken place on the D-1. With futures trading at a discount to cash, the counter has seen reverse arbitrage at the start of the series. Near month OI stands at ~20.5mn shares which is 3 days average daily volume in cash market. With roll level being a tad expensive at 47bps (profit to short roller), the stock is likely to see buying in the VWAP if rollovers don’t pick up.
Vedanta: 43% rollovers have taken place and ~28mn shares are outstanding in the near month which is ~3 days average daily volume in cash market. Roll levels in the counter were ~18bps (profit to short rollers unadjusted to dividend). The company has a history of declaring dividends in November. With uncertainty surrounding the amount and possibility of higher payout, we believe long rollers would not risk forgoing the dividend and hence would convert the positions into cash tomorrow in the VWAP.
GAIL: On the D-1, rollovers stand at 40% and ~16mn shares are outstanding in the near month which is ~2 days average daily volume in cash market. Roll levels in the counter were ~9bps (profit to short rollers). The counter offered opportunity to unwind cash and buy futures at the start of the series. Amidst low rollovers and the stock being part of Bharat22 ETF, we expect the long rollers to convert the positions to cash in VWAP.
Stay long on Nifty with stop at 10,150
The market hit new highs on Wednesday on the back of the massive recapitalisation plan. Bullish global trends also helped to keep sentiments high. The Nifty hit a high of 10,340 before seeing profit booking. Although FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) didn't really buy in meaningful quantity, retail and domestic institutional buying in PSU banks pushed the market to new highs.
Obviously, the new highs confirm the long trend remains bullish and momentum may have accelerated. However, this is a new zone so, target setting is near-impossible. READ MORE
Top technical calls from Prabhudas Lilladher
BUY INDIA CEMENTS
CMP: Rs 189.95
TARGET: Rs 215
STOP LOSS: Rs 177
BUY JP ASSOCIATES
CMP: Rs 20.20
TARGET: Rs 23
Nifty View by Prabhudas Lilladher
The trend of all periodicities are in green for Nifty, market once again sees participation from many sectors, as we are approaching the expiry of October future contracts. The support for the day is seen at 10,240 while resistance is seen at 10,350.
HDFC Standard Life Insurance IPO to open on November 7
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company, a subsidiary of mortgage lender HDFC, today said its initial public offer (IPO) will hit the market on November 7.
The public issue comprises sale of 1,91,246,050 equity shares, amounting to 9.55% stake, by HDFC Ltd and up to 1,08,581,768 scrips, or 5.42%, holding by Standard Life Mauritius, according to a regulatory filing on stock exchanges.
36 companies to declare results on Thursday
As many as 36 companies are likely to declare results on Thursday including Biocon, Coromandel International, Crompton Greaves, Cummins India, Equitas Holdings, GIC Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, ION Exchange, Jubilant Foodworks, L&T Finance Holdings, Mastek, Mphasis, Shoppers Stop, Yes Bank, United Spirits, Vijaya Bank etc. among others.
RCom to shut 2G biz
Anil Ambani-led Reliance Communications (RCom) has asked 60 per cent of its 81 million customers to migrate from using second generation (2G) services to 4G services, as it was shutting down the 2G business. This comes a day after the beleaguered company said it was shutting down its direct-to-home TV business.
The company has also asked around 1,000 employees to leave by the end of November. READ MORE
India should have 5-7 large banks ideally: Arvind Subramanian
A day after the government announced a massive Rs 2.11 lakh crore capital support initiative, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian today made a case for consolidation in the banking space saying the country ideally should have 5-7 large lenders.
In an ideal banking world of tomorrow, India needs to have both large public sector and private sector banks, competing domestically and being competitive internationally, he said. READ MORE
New India Assurance’s Rs 9.6K crore IPO to open on Nov 1
New India Assurance’s Rs 9,600 crore initial public offering (IPO) will open on November 1 and close on November 3. The price band has been fixed at Rs 770 to Rs 800 and the IPO will comprise of 120 million shares.
At Rs 9,600 crore for a 14.56% stake, the insurance company has been valued at almost Rs 66,000 crore.
Reliance Nippon Life AMC IPO subscribed nearly five times on Day 1
The initial public offering (IPO) of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management got an overwhelming response on day one, with the issue getting subscribed nearly five times.
In terms of day one subscription,this is highest-ever said investment bankers. READ MORE
8:37 AM Oil Check
US oil prices extended declines on Thursday after government data showed a surprise climb in US crude inventories.
NYMEX crude for December delivery CLc1 was down 2 cents at $52.16 a barrel, after ending the last session down 29 cents, or 0.6%. Brent hit an intraday high of $58.74 on Wednesday, moving back towards a 26-month peak marked in late September.
The Nifty futures on the Singaporean stock exchange were trading lower by around 25.50 points at 10268, a fall of around 0.25% indicating a flat to negative start for the Indian markets
Asian stocks stall on Wall Street pullback
Asian stocks stalled on Thursday, weighed as Wall Street shares pulled back from record highs, while the euro stretched gains ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting at which it could take a major step away from accommodative policy
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.05%. Australian stocks dipped 0.2% while South Korea's KOSPI lost 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei, which had snapped a 16-day winning run the previous day, rose 0.35%.
8:34 AM Wall Street ends lower
US stocks fell on Wednesday on a batch of soft quarterly earnings, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its worst day in seven weeks after rising to a record peak the previous session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.3 points, or 0.48%, to end at 23,329.46, the S&P 500 lost 11.98 points, or 0.47%, to 2,557.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 34.54 points, or 0.52%, to 6,563.89.
8:32 AM Good Morning!
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First Published: Thu, October 26 2017. 15:30 IST