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IMD forecasts normal southwest monsoon rainfall in 2018

Capital Market 

Meteorological Department (IMD) in its first stage operational forecast for the southwest seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole has forecasted the seasonal rainfall to be 97% of the Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast.

Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of will also be issued.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole suggest probability of rainfall to be deficient i.e. below 90% of LPA is only 14% and below normal (90-96%) is 30%. However, the probability of rainfall to be normal (96-104%) is 42%, above normal (104-110) 12% and excess (>110) is 2%.

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(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, April 16 2018. 18:26 IST
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