Business Standard

StatsGuru: 05-May-2012

Related News

A hopeful start to 2012 has been belied. The West is slipping back into recession, as Table 1 shows. The and remain strong, but many other powerhouses — even the UK — have begun to contract. And, as Table 2 makes clear, there is little hope for a recovery soon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the euro zone, for example, are solidly below 50 for both manufacturing and services — even for German manufacturing. A below 50 indicates a contraction; it is clear that producers’ sentiment across is still very weak. A rally seems unlikely.

The US’ numbers appear more healthy, but its recovery is slowing, too. Jobs growth had begun to look healthy but, as Table 3 shows, has tailed off sharply in the past few months – especially in April. Meanwhile, the problems associated with peripheral euro-zone countries like Greece are spreading. The UK’s and Spain’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio — as shown in Table 4 — are worrying investors. And Italy and Portugal have debt-to-GDP ratios that are similarly of concern, as Table 5 indicates. (Click here for tables)

As it becomes increasingly clear that these problems are not going away, an initial decline in sovereign bond yields for Spain and Italy — following solid support for their banking systems from the European Central Bank — has ended. They are now, as Table 6 shows, back near the dangerous 6 per cent mark.

For India, the continuing weakness of the West is a very real problem. Its own external vulnerability increases along with its imported fuel bill; exports have not kept up with the increase in imports. As Table 7 documents, what appeared to be a steady increase in exports in 2011 has now stagnated. With no end to the North Atlantic crisis in sight, strong export growth might be too much to hope for.

Read more on:   
|
|
|
|
|
|

StatsGuru: 05-May-2012

A hopeful start to 2012 has been belied. The West is slipping back into recession, as Table 1 shows. The US and Germany remain strong, but many other powerhouses — even the UK — have begun to contract. And, as Table 2 makes clear, there is little hope for a recovery soon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the euro zone, for example, are solidly below 50 for both manufacturing and services — even for German manufacturing.

A hopeful start to 2012 has been belied. The West is slipping back into recession, as Table 1 shows. The and remain strong, but many other powerhouses — even the UK — have begun to contract. And, as Table 2 makes clear, there is little hope for a recovery soon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the euro zone, for example, are solidly below 50 for both manufacturing and services — even for German manufacturing. A below 50 indicates a contraction; it is clear that producers’ sentiment across is still very weak. A rally seems unlikely.

The US’ numbers appear more healthy, but its recovery is slowing, too. Jobs growth had begun to look healthy but, as Table 3 shows, has tailed off sharply in the past few months – especially in April. Meanwhile, the problems associated with peripheral euro-zone countries like Greece are spreading. The UK’s and Spain’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio — as shown in Table 4 — are worrying investors. And Italy and Portugal have debt-to-GDP ratios that are similarly of concern, as Table 5 indicates. (Click here for tables)

As it becomes increasingly clear that these problems are not going away, an initial decline in sovereign bond yields for Spain and Italy — following solid support for their banking systems from the European Central Bank — has ended. They are now, as Table 6 shows, back near the dangerous 6 per cent mark.

For India, the continuing weakness of the West is a very real problem. Its own external vulnerability increases along with its imported fuel bill; exports have not kept up with the increase in imports. As Table 7 documents, what appeared to be a steady increase in exports in 2011 has now stagnated. With no end to the North Atlantic crisis in sight, strong export growth might be too much to hope for.

image

Read More

Ajit Balakrishnan: Indian schools' new social filter

The first sign of trouble appeared in January this year. Fifteen-year-old Alzira’s class teacher summoned her mother, Tina, and warned her that if ...

Recommended for you

Advertisements

Most Popular Columns

Sunita Narain

Sunita Narain: A changed monsoon?
Sunita Narain

IMD says severe and unseasonal rain this year has been because of the confluence of western disturbances with the easterlies from the Bay of Bengal

Daniel Gros

Daniel Gros: Greece is different
Daniel Gros

Austerity has sparked economic revival everywhere it has been tried - except for Greece

Ajai Shukla

Ajai Shukla: Nurturing shipyards: the case of HSL
Ajai Shukla

Hindustan Shipyard cannot be thrown to market wolves

Columnists

Andy Mukherjee

Andy Mukherjee: A calm rupee
Andy Mukherjee

The Reserve Bank of India has room to cut interest rates and revive growth without having to fret about capital flight

A K Bhattacharya

A K Bhattacharya: Towards real fiscal correction
A K Bhattacharya

Nobody should dispute the laudable performance of the Narendra Modi government in sticking to the difficult path of fiscal correction. The ...

Vanita Kohli-Khandekar

Vanita Kohli-Khandekar: The tragedy of metrics
Vanita Kohli-Khandekar

The possibilities of using readership or ratings data to tinker with content, launch shows and brands are phenomenal. But they have become a ...

Back to Top