Business Standard

StatsGuru: 05-May-2012

Related News

A hopeful start to 2012 has been belied. The West is slipping back into recession, as Table 1 shows. The and remain strong, but many other powerhouses — even the UK — have begun to contract. And, as Table 2 makes clear, there is little hope for a recovery soon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the euro zone, for example, are solidly below 50 for both manufacturing and services — even for German manufacturing. A below 50 indicates a contraction; it is clear that producers’ sentiment across is still very weak. A rally seems unlikely.

The US’ numbers appear more healthy, but its recovery is slowing, too. Jobs growth had begun to look healthy but, as Table 3 shows, has tailed off sharply in the past few months – especially in April. Meanwhile, the problems associated with peripheral euro-zone countries like Greece are spreading. The UK’s and Spain’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio — as shown in Table 4 — are worrying investors. And Italy and Portugal have debt-to-GDP ratios that are similarly of concern, as Table 5 indicates. (Click here for tables)

As it becomes increasingly clear that these problems are not going away, an initial decline in sovereign bond yields for Spain and Italy — following solid support for their banking systems from the European Central Bank — has ended. They are now, as Table 6 shows, back near the dangerous 6 per cent mark.

For India, the continuing weakness of the West is a very real problem. Its own external vulnerability increases along with its imported fuel bill; exports have not kept up with the increase in imports. As Table 7 documents, what appeared to be a steady increase in exports in 2011 has now stagnated. With no end to the North Atlantic crisis in sight, strong export growth might be too much to hope for.

Read more on:   
|
|
|
|
|
|

Read More

Ajit Balakrishnan: Indian schools' new social filter

The first sign of trouble appeared in January this year. Fifteen-year-old Alzira’s class teacher summoned her mother, Tina, and warned her that if ...

Most Popular Columnists

Nitin Pai

Nitin Pai: Xi Jinping - $100 bn is coming!
Nitin Pai

The current moment presents the Modi government with an opportunity to take advantage, but very carefully, of Beijing's inclination to offer economic incentives

Ajai Shukla

Ajai Shukla: Kashmir floods - Army gains where media fails
Ajai Shukla

If perspectives of this month's flood disaster in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), especially the New Orleans-like inundation of Srinagar, were shaped ...

Devesh Kapur

Devesh Kapur: Summitry over substance?
Devesh Kapur

Expectations from Narendra Modi's trip to the United States need to be more realistic

Advertisement

Columnists

Andy Mukherjee

Andy Mukherjee: Neighbourly lessons
Andy Mukherjee

Xi Jinping can tell Narendra Modi how to prepare a country for a flood of foreign investment

A K Bhattacharya

A K Bhattacharya: Time to worry about capex
A K Bhattacharya

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had surprised many experts and analysts by announcing in his Budget for 2014-15 that he would accept the fiscal ...

Vanita Kohli-Khandekar

Vanita Kohli-Khandekar: What India watches on TV
Vanita Kohli-Khandekar

BARC seems to have learned lessons from the Indian Readership Survey experience but can its proposed TV rating system avoid the same fate?

Back to Top