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China's Xi joins Russia, Zimbabwe in global autocrat club

AP  |  Beijing 

Recent history offers sobering lessons to China's following its decision to allow to rule indefinitely.

For millennia, one-man rule for life was standard under kings and emperors. But from to to North Korea, modern autocrats often blunder into economic stagnation, and war.

"There is a tendency for erratic and sometimes unwise policy choices," said Erica Frantz, a who studies dictatorships, in an email. Those include "more belligerent foreign policy" and greater likelihood of war.

On paper, deleting term limits on Xi's ceremonial post as from China's constitution is a modest change compared with the vast powers he has amassed since becoming ruling in 2012.

But the decision crystalized fears was discarding shared leadership developed since the 1980s. That system is meant to guard against the excesses of autocratic rule by requiring ruling party figures to give up power on schedule.

Some societies such as and are prosperous and stable under governing parties that stay in power for decades while avoiding the excesses of one-man rule.

Chinese officials echo arguments offered by other governments that staying in power will enable to carry out long-term plans. But while some analysts say that might help in the short term, in the long run other economies with autocratic leaders have fallen behind.

"It is likely that over time the quality of his choices will deteriorate," Frantz said.

Buoyed by an oil boom, Vladimir Putin's rule since 2000 has been marked by complaints about corruption and human rights abuse, tension with the West over Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea and accusations of meddling in US elections.

The economy grew during Putin's first years in power as passed to become the No. 1 oil producer, but was battered by the 2008 global crisis. More recently, falling and sanctions imposed over Crimea have caused economic activity to shrink.

Human rights groups accuse Putin of ordering assassinations of political opponents and stifling criticism. Abroad, supported separatists who took control of in 2014 in violence that has killed more than 10,000 people. Russian troops seized Crimea, part of since 1954.

Putin sent soldiers to the following year to support against rebels.

is investigating Donald Trump's ties to and has charged Russian operatives with using and targeted messaging to interfere in the 2016

agencies expressed "high confidence" that Putin ordered an "influence campaign" including to harm candidate in the election. Putin has consistently denied any Kremlin involvement in the interference.

Under the Marxist model, dynastic succession isn't supposed to happen. But Kim Il Sung, who ruled for 46 years until his death in 1994, jettisoned that thinking and groomed his son, Kim Jong Il, to lead.

The hereditary dictatorship, now in its third generation under grandson Kim Jong Un, has proven resilient, lasting 70 years in direct conflict with the The regime is possibly stronger than ever and is on the verge of having a viable nuclear weapon.

That grip on power has come at significant cost to the nation. Basic human rights such as the freedom of speech, of travel and of religion are suppressed and the health of the economy is subjected to the needs of the military and the regime elite.

Kim has tried to emulate his grandfather in appearance and style. But he has struggled with the classic authoritarian dilemma: His regime and economic policies must adapt to survive, but allowing change could open the door to his own downfall.

In the early days following the end of white minority rule in 1980, stressed education and industries flourished.

As the years went by, the economy collapsed and was reduced to being one of the world's poorest countries. Mugabe was accused of clinging to power through violence, intimidation and election fraud.

Mugabe, 94, was forced to resign late last year after the military staged a takeover, lawmakers from the ruling party and opposition started impeachment proceedings and the public staged massive demonstrations against him.

Mugabe, who blamed the West for many of Zimbabwe's problems, was replaced as by a former confidant who promises change. Zimbabwe's post-Mugabe path will become clearer after elections that are due to be held this year.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, March 12 2018. 17:20 IST
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