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Expert View: Consumer inflation accelerates to 4.58 percent in April

Reuters  |  BENGALURU 

BENGALURU (Reuters) - India's annual consumer price accelerated in April to 4.58 percent, after easing for three straight months, data from the showed on Monday, mainly driven by faster hikes in fuel prices.

The median forecast in the poll of nearly 30 economists was for April's annual rate of consumer to rise to 4.42 percent from 4.28 percent in the previous month.


The CPI numbers are very much in line with the expectations. If you look at RBI's commentary, they were projecting 4.7 percent-5.1 percent for H1 FY 2019. It is still lower than RBI's expectations. So I do not see an immediate rate hike. We will gradually see a rate hike in FY 2019.

Since crude prices are rising towards $77 per barrel and with the rupee appreciating, numbers were expected to be higher.

Since it is still lower than RBI's projected range, RBI would be comfortable with these numbers, and as a result, immediate rate hike is not on the cards. In the next bi-monthly policy meet, it will be status quo.

With the current oil prices, we do not see any ease in the inflation numbers, which will continue to remain in the same range. If crude prices remain in the same range of $75-$77 per barrel, I don't see RBI changing forecast of inflation.

If crude rises to more than $80 per bbl, we might see RBI's inflation expectations going higher and an immediate rate hike.

We will definitely see more than 7.3 percent of GDP growth in fourth quarter.


"An increase in headline CPI inflation is primarily on account of a steep increase in the components of like clothing and footwear, housing, miscellaneous goods and services.

"A significantly high combined with surging global commodity prices would make RBI more vigilant. is again headed for a combination of high inflation and low growth. This is very serious. Credit lines have dried up with 11 PSBs coming under the RBI's PCA. Bond yields have surged making cost of credit prohibitively very high. The of and the government will have to work together to pull the system out of the current mess."


"The key drivers of April number were and beverages that have turned positive month-on-month after four months of contraction. Other drivers were related to miscellaneous that has seen across-the-board hardening of inflation led by education, household goods, personal care and fuel commodities such as petrol and diesel.

"at 5.9 percent is at a 44-month high. Going forward, we expect the trajectory to move north with international crude prices firming up and likely remaining elevated as also by MSP-led (minimum support price) inflation. We maintain our estimate for FY19 at 4.7 percent with upward bias. The positive support could come only if we have a solid monsoon performance giving a grain output."


"Firmer headline is driven by in food prices, especially vegetables, together with a sharp rise in domestic fuel prices. Housing is still upheld by remnant rent allowance changes. Hardening core pressures are the dominant takeaway from April's outcome as it ticks towards 5.8 percent-5.9 percent, much to the discomfort of the central

"The of is likely to adopt hawkish commentary in June, highlighting upside risks from MSP (minimum support price) increases and global oil prices, coupled with heightened volatility in the financial markets. Today's outcome validates our expectations that the central bank is likely to tighten policy in August."


"We continue to expect a pre-emptive rate hike by the at its August policy meeting. Whether the hike will be one-off or followed up by another hike this year would be data-dependent. Nevertheless, chances of two rate hikes in 2018 have increased.

"We remain comfortable with our fiscal year-end average inflation forecast of 5.1 percent. The bias remains on upside risks, largely led by and a stronger cyclical recovery in activity.

"We think RBI would revise its inflation forecast higher. Global growth momentum remains strong despite trade tensions; are edging up on geopolitical risks and domestic demand and investments are in recovery mode.

"Underlying inflation pressures are mainly demand-driven, backed by the ongoing cyclical recovery in consumption and investment. Core inflation would firm up further as the combination of higher commodity prices and improving demand abet labour costs going forward."

(Reporting by in Mumbai, Jessica Kuruthukulangara and Vishal Sridhar in Bengaluru, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, May 14 2018. 18:11 IST