ALSO READRusal shares plunge over 40 percent on U.S. sanctions Goldman Sachs no longer one of top three commodities banks Investors await Goldman's $5 billion answers as trading picks up Goldman was caught 'wrongfooted' but outlook is better - CEO Goldman Sachs beats estimates as investment banking revenue soars
(Reuters) - Aluminium prices are expected to remain high and volatile until June because of sanctions on Russia's Rusal, while tensions in the Middle East are likely to push oil prices to $72 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
The bank reinforced its "overweight" view on commodities, with a forecast return of 10 percent over the next 12 months.
"With low cross-asset correlations, increasing inflationary risks, a positive carry and the potential for oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger," analysts at the investment bank said in a note.
However, the bank does not expect direct impact on the global oil market from last week's U.S. sanctions directed at Russian oligarchs and companies. Among them are aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska, a close associate of President Vladimir Putin.
"Without the support of other countries, it appears unlikely that production would fall much, and we expect that several hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports would be initially at risk," the bank said
Potential losses from Iranian production were likely to support oil prices by $7 a barrel, it added.
"With low and declining inventories, the market remains vulnerable to even small disruptions."