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Oil demand estimates converging but better data still needed: OPEC


By Alex Lawler

NEW - demand estimates by major government forecasters are converging, an OPEC said on Tuesday, although more effort is needed to improve the quality of data about the global market.

A lack of transparency about demand, supply and stocks has long been seen as a cause of excessive price swings. The Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), which collects and reports data, is an attempt by producers and consumers to gain a clearer picture.

Aziz Yahyai, a at OPEC, showed a JODI information seminar in New a slide of from the International Energy Agency, the and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Estimates made in July 2016 by the three main government forecasters of 2017 global demand ranged from just over 95 million barrels per day to more than 97 million bpd, with the gap narrowing in later months' forecasts.

"There is some improvement," Yahyai said. "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million."

But a discrepancy of 1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts, he said.

While the JODI database is an important source of information not available elsewhere, shortcomings include a lack of information about inventories and insufficient data for big consumers such as China, and the United Arab Emirates, Yahyai said.

"Global stock levels are the source for checking the accuracy of supply and demand numbers. However, the lack/inaccuracy of stocks data makes an accurate assessment very difficult."

The JODI partners include exporter group OPEC and the IEA, which advises It was originally formed in 2001 to focus on and later broadened its scope to include

The JODI seminar was held at the International Energy Forum, a meeting of producers and consumers this week in New

(Editing by Dale Hudson)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Tue, April 10 2018. 22:28 IST