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Oil, gold to gain on Syria strikes; Russian retaliation in focus

Reuters  |  LONDON 

By and Sujata Rao

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold and will extend their gains on Monday, albeit modestly, when markets open for the first time since Western powers launched a missile attack on Syria, but equities are unlikely to suffer big losses unless the West strikes again or retaliates.

"The flow is actually better than what it looked like at one point during last week as the strike was surgical, followed by a pullback. Reports show a lot of care was taken not to hit Russian targets, which is a good sign and the market should take heart from that," said Salman Ahmed, at investment managers in London.

Gold has benefited in recent days as a safe-haven asset amid a U.S.-trade dispute and the escalating conflict in Syria, which also pushed above $70 per barrel due to concerns about a spike in Middle Eastern tensions.

World stocks wobbled last week but still ended with the best weekly gain in over a month, as investors await potentially healthy earnings.

Despite heightened geopolitical risks, the impact on so-called safe-haven assets has been short-lived and modest. While the yen rose initially on fears of a Syrian strike, it ended near seven-week lows to the dollar last week.

On Saturday, U.S., French and British missile attacks struck at the heart of Syria's in retaliation for a a week ago, although the assault appeared unlikely to halt Syrian Bashar al-Assad's progress in the seven-year-old civil war.

For map of Syrian strikes, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2EKgAMN

The bombing, denounced by and its allies as an illegal act of aggression, was the biggest intervention by Western countries against Assad and his powerful ally

But the three countries said the strikes were limited to Syria's and not aimed at toppling Assad or intervening in the civil war.

Naeem Aslam, chief at Think Markets, said gold was poised to gain on Monday but the rally wouldn't be very steep: "The focus will be on the counter-reaction from "

Gold, often used as a store of value in times of political and economic uncertainty, could rally towards $1,400 per ounce after two consecutive weeks of gains.

"If we do break above $1,365, that next week we would be very bullish," said Aslam.

will be the first major market to open on Monday and the yen will likely strengthen to the dollar, but not beyond 106.50, said Itsuo Toshima, at adding that he didn't expect stocks traders to make sharp moves.

"The first attack was within expectations and was already priced in the market ... However, if there is a second round of strikes, that is not in line with expectations. So that should prompt a sharp risk-off move in markets," he added.

Frank Benzimra, Pacific at Corporate and Investment Banking, said stocks would plunge only in case of new strikes by Western powers.

In case of such an escalation, would rally further, the yen would spike and Japan's domestic defensive stocks would outperform international stocks.

"For the stress on equity markets to be sustainable, we would need to have prices spiking to such a level that fundamental concerns, i.e. higher inflation and risks on growth, return to the market," he said.

from said that despite Middle Eastern tensions and looming new U.S. sanctions on Iran, has outperformed most expectations this year and may have rallied too far too fast.

"We are likely to get a sell-off this week as the extent of the Syrian strikes have been muted and, in general, calmer nerves prevail in Washington," she said.

traders had locked in long positions ahead of the weekend, in anticipation of potential strikes, sending both Intermediate and global benchmark Brent crude futures to their highest since 2014.

(Reporting by Vidya Ranganathan, Sujata Rao, and Dmitry Zhdannikov; additional reporting by Jessica Resnick-Ault; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by and Nick Zieminski)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, April 16 2018. 00:19 IST
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