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Oil prices dip on doubts over planned crude output cuts

Brent crude futures was trading at $55.87 per barrel on Friday

Reuters  |  Singapore 

Oil, WTI, Brent Crude
Offshore oil platforms are seen at the Bouri Oil Field off the coast of Libya.Photo: Reuters

dipped on lingering doubts that crude production cuts would go deep enough to curb a global fuel supply glut, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the health of the Chinese economy after it reported the steepest falls in since 2009.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for prices, were trading at $55.87 per barrel at 0816 GMT on Friday, down 14 cents from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 9 cents at $52.92 per barrel.

Record Chinese crude imports of 8.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in December helped buoy prices somewhat, traders said. But they could not hide underlying fears over the overall health of the world's second-biggest economy.

Despite China's thirst, overall - the country's economic backbone - fell 7.7 per cent in 2016 in what was the second annual decline in a row, and the worst since the depths of the global crisis in 2009.

In another sign that China's crude imports do not fully represent the country's fuel demand, of Chinese refined products last month rose nearly 25 per cent on a year earlier to a record 5.35 million tonnes, well above November's previous record of 4.85 million tonnes.

On the supply side, there was some market support from top crude exporter Saudi Arabia which said that its output had fallen below 10 million bpd, to levels last seen in early 2015.

However, hard evidence of export reductions has yet to emerge, two weeks into the month when the cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers like Russia were supposed to start. Many analysts expect compliance of 50-80 per cent, at best.

"Any slip in the market's confidence that producers will follow through on their promises may lead to sharp price corrections," said French bank BNP Paribas.

BNP said that it expected prices to average $56 per barrel in 2017, up $7 from its previous forecast, and Brent to average $58 per barrel, up $8 from its earlier estimate.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its January outlook that it forecasts Brent and to average $53 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively in 2017.

Even if OPEC cuts its output as agreed, traders said that rising US shale output and increasing supply from OPEC members Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the pact, might offset any reductions.

An informal Reuters survey of over 1,000 energy market professionals showed that Brent prices in 2017 are expected to average around $55-$60 a barrel.

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Oil prices dip on doubts over planned crude output cuts

Brent crude futures was trading at $55.87 per barrel on Friday

Brent crude futures was trading at $55.87 per barrel on Friday
dipped on lingering doubts that crude production cuts would go deep enough to curb a global fuel supply glut, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the health of the Chinese economy after it reported the steepest falls in since 2009.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for prices, were trading at $55.87 per barrel at 0816 GMT on Friday, down 14 cents from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 9 cents at $52.92 per barrel.

Record Chinese crude imports of 8.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in December helped buoy prices somewhat, traders said. But they could not hide underlying fears over the overall health of the world's second-biggest economy.

Despite China's thirst, overall - the country's economic backbone - fell 7.7 per cent in 2016 in what was the second annual decline in a row, and the worst since the depths of the global crisis in 2009.

In another sign that China's crude imports do not fully represent the country's fuel demand, of Chinese refined products last month rose nearly 25 per cent on a year earlier to a record 5.35 million tonnes, well above November's previous record of 4.85 million tonnes.

On the supply side, there was some market support from top crude exporter Saudi Arabia which said that its output had fallen below 10 million bpd, to levels last seen in early 2015.

However, hard evidence of export reductions has yet to emerge, two weeks into the month when the cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers like Russia were supposed to start. Many analysts expect compliance of 50-80 per cent, at best.

"Any slip in the market's confidence that producers will follow through on their promises may lead to sharp price corrections," said French bank BNP Paribas.

BNP said that it expected prices to average $56 per barrel in 2017, up $7 from its previous forecast, and Brent to average $58 per barrel, up $8 from its earlier estimate.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its January outlook that it forecasts Brent and to average $53 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively in 2017.

Even if OPEC cuts its output as agreed, traders said that rising US shale output and increasing supply from OPEC members Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the pact, might offset any reductions.

An informal Reuters survey of over 1,000 energy market professionals showed that Brent prices in 2017 are expected to average around $55-$60 a barrel.
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Business Standard
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Oil prices dip on doubts over planned crude output cuts

Brent crude futures was trading at $55.87 per barrel on Friday

dipped on lingering doubts that crude production cuts would go deep enough to curb a global fuel supply glut, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the health of the Chinese economy after it reported the steepest falls in since 2009.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for prices, were trading at $55.87 per barrel at 0816 GMT on Friday, down 14 cents from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 9 cents at $52.92 per barrel.

Record Chinese crude imports of 8.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in December helped buoy prices somewhat, traders said. But they could not hide underlying fears over the overall health of the world's second-biggest economy.

Despite China's thirst, overall - the country's economic backbone - fell 7.7 per cent in 2016 in what was the second annual decline in a row, and the worst since the depths of the global crisis in 2009.

In another sign that China's crude imports do not fully represent the country's fuel demand, of Chinese refined products last month rose nearly 25 per cent on a year earlier to a record 5.35 million tonnes, well above November's previous record of 4.85 million tonnes.

On the supply side, there was some market support from top crude exporter Saudi Arabia which said that its output had fallen below 10 million bpd, to levels last seen in early 2015.

However, hard evidence of export reductions has yet to emerge, two weeks into the month when the cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers like Russia were supposed to start. Many analysts expect compliance of 50-80 per cent, at best.

"Any slip in the market's confidence that producers will follow through on their promises may lead to sharp price corrections," said French bank BNP Paribas.

BNP said that it expected prices to average $56 per barrel in 2017, up $7 from its previous forecast, and Brent to average $58 per barrel, up $8 from its earlier estimate.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its January outlook that it forecasts Brent and to average $53 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively in 2017.

Even if OPEC cuts its output as agreed, traders said that rising US shale output and increasing supply from OPEC members Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the pact, might offset any reductions.

An informal Reuters survey of over 1,000 energy market professionals showed that Brent prices in 2017 are expected to average around $55-$60 a barrel.

image
Business Standard
177 22