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  • 26-Sep-2014 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Recent trends offer RBI better comfort

    After the relatively dovish statement in June, the RBI adopted a markedly cautious tone in its August meeting

  • 10-Jul-2014 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Spadework for a reboot

    India's fiscal dynamics is typically pro-cyclical

  • 28-May-2014 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Policy can be more balanced in coming months

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to stay on hold in June. Inflation, after spiking in late-2013, has turned relatively range-bound in recent months. While volatile inflation prints and nagging household inflationary expectations ...

  • 26-Mar-2014 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Polls, monsoon to shape policy path in FY15

    The RBI looks set to keep the key interest rates on hold in next week's policy meeting

  • 25-Oct-2013 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Reserve Bank of India faces a difficult choice

    Experts expect the rupee to have a stable-to-positive bias over the near term-likely at 61/$ through the next 3-6 months

  • 18-Sep-2013 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    RBI to wait for 'time correction' in rupee trajectory

    The Indian rupee seems to have stabilised in recent weeks after the heavy depreciation during June-August. Accordingly, the debate - whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should roll back its July liquidity tightening measures as early as on 20 ...

  • 26-Jul-2013 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    RBI likely to stay away from over-tightening

    The rupee's rise against the dollar since mid-July had broadly been in line with a host of other currencies and the weakness in the broader dollar index

  • 14-Sep-2012 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    RBI's 'on-hold' policy coming to an end

    The central bank’s strong anti-inflation rhetoric since June has dampened the earlier market expectation of rate cuts in September and to an extent over the remaining months of 2012-13 as well. I, however, remain biased in thinking RBI will ...

  • 27-Jul-2012 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    July policy a close call rate cuts to follow

    Rate cut expectations in July have softened recently, with strong anti-inflationary rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It will, however, be difficult for RBI to deny further monetary easing for long, in my opinion, given aggravating ...

  • 07-Mar-2012 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    We need realistic fiscal arithmetic

    I maintain relatively muted expectations from the coming Union Budget. No quick turnaround in the fiscal health is realistic to expect. The gross fiscal deficit (GFD) in 2011-12 is finally set to hover around 5.5 per cent of GDP — way above ...

  • 14-Dec-2011 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    RBI should avoid a cut in cash reserve ratio

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) faces the classical central bank dilemma, with both growth and inflation in uncomfortable territories. While no rate action is expected in the upcoming December announcement, the monetary policy stance and the ...

  • 20-Oct-2011 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    'Rhetoric spells RBI's discomfort in pausing now'

    The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) action in the upcoming policy review remains a close call between a pause and a rise of 25 basis points in the repo rate. We expect it to eventually deliver a final 25-basis point rise next week. The choice for RBI ...

  • 16-Jun-2011 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    Rate rise remains a done deal

    Inflation remained elusive and stubborn at near double-digit levels for several months. Inflation in May, at above nine per cent, turned out to be yet another upside surprise. Pressures remained widespread, with food, energy and manufacturing prices ...

  • 28-Apr-2011 | Siddhartha Sanyal

    No respite in sight for interest rates

    Elevated headline prints, large upward revisions, and rising ‘core’ inflation (non-food manufacturing inflation breached 7 per cent year-on-year in March to hit a 29-month high) would certainly force the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ...

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