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| A normal monsoon | | The "long-range" forecast of another normal monsoon has little practical utility as it cannot be used to plan for agriculture or water reserves |
| Business Standard / New Delhi Apr 21, 2009, 00:49 IST |
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The “long-range” forecast of another normal monsoon will bring cheer since it predicts that the total quantum of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season will be near normal, but beyond that has little practical utility. Whether it is planning for agriculture or for water releases from the major reservoirs for irrigation or for hydel power production, this information is not enough. The country also needs to know the spacing and timing of monsoon precipitation, which the met office usually talks about only in its update in June, just prior to the actual onset of the monsoon. Still, the long-range prediction has a bearing on sentiments, as reflected in the reaction on the stock market, the Sensex surged by 3 per cent on April 17 before settling down to close with a 0.7 per cent gain. The projection has also been greeted with relief by the companies interested in rural markets which have remained by and large unaffected by the current economic slowdown. Agriculture’s share in the total gross domestic product (GDP) may have shrunk to 18 per cent, with a sizeable part of it coming from non-crop segments, but a good crop year is vital for employment and income generation in the rural areas, with a resultant impact on food prices and therefore on poverty levels.
The met office’s prediction of the total monsoon rainfall, at around 96 per cent of the long-period average of 89 cm (with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent), has been based on the statistical model being used since 2007. This model is yet to establish its credentials as a reliable instrument of monsoon prediction as its record so far has been mixed. Last year, for instance, it correctly projected the total quantum of waterfall during the entire season (forecast: 99 per cent to 100 per cent; actual: 98 per cent), but it erred in its projection of rainfall in different regions and in different months. While it under-estimated the rainfall in the major north-western agricultural belt, it over-estimated that in the month of July, the ideal crop planting time. Rainfall during this month turned out to be 17 per cent below normal, causing difficulties in timely crop sowing, and damaging the early planted crops. What farmers need to know are possible aberrations in the monsoon – delayed onset; prolonged breaks in rainfall during the season; and early or belated withdrawal. Unfortunately, the met office has little or nothing to offer on these issues.
There is another reason for keeping fingers crossed. The prevailing La Nina event (cooling of the Pacific Ocean which usually has a positive influence on the monsoon) is expected to fade out by May, well before the beginning of the monsoon season. There is also the fear, albeit not well founded as yet, that it may be replaced with the dreaded El Nino (warming of the Pacific waters), which can be inimical to the monsoon. But as of now, the met office forecast is what should guide expectations.
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