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| Economy to grow over 9% in Q1: Pronab Sen |
| Press Trust of India / New Delhi Jul 19, 2010, 20:28 IST |
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The economy is likely to grow above 9 per cent in the first quarter, according to Planning Commission Principal Energy Advisor Pronab Sen.
"The first quarter gross domestic product growth will be slightly above 9 per cent," said the former chief statistician on the sidelines of a PHD Chamber function here.
Last Friday, Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu also had said the first quarter might show up around 9 per cent expansion while the full fiscal would grow over 8.5 per cent.
The GDP grew by 7.4 per cent in the last fiscal with its fourth quarter managing clipping at 8.6 per cent. The government expects 8.5 per cent growth this fiscal.
The economy has been on the recovery path since dipping to 6.7 per cent in FY09 mainly on stimulus measures undertaken by government which saw the and industry ticking back after the global downturn that began in September 2008.
Industrial production has remained in double-digits for the eighth month in a row in May driven mainly by a robust performance of the manufacturing sector. However, Sen said industrial growth is not likely to remain in double digits for the full financial year. It has slipped to 11.5 per cent in May from 16.52 per cent in April.
"The index of industrial production is very unlikely to cross 10 per cent this fiscal. It will be probably around 9 per cent," Sen said.
On the headline inflation, he said it is likely to inch up from the 10.55 per cent in June, but will not cross 11 per cent mark in July.
"July provisional inflation is likely to be below 11 per cent. Inflation may peak in July unless rains play havoc," he said, adding the fuel price hike has already been factored in.
On whether there should be a uniform sales tax on petrol and diesel to avoid inter-state price disparity, he said the Centre has no role as sales tax on these items are out of VAT regime and it depends solely on the states.
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