The UPA government completed four years in office last week, on which occasion it released a comprehensive report of its activities and achievements during its tenure. Its "Report to the People 2008" pays a lot of attention to its programmes in the health, education and rural development domains. It emphasises the direction towards faster and more inclusive growth that the Eleventh Five Year Plan, which kicked off in 2007, has provided to the country's economic policy. Bharat Nirman, its comprehensive rural development strategy, which seeks to co-ordinate investment spending in the rural areas across a variety of sectors and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, which was extended from the poorest districts to the entire country this year, have been projected as the high points of the coalition's inclusiveness agenda. On macroeconomic performance, while growth has clearly been a high point during the government's term, the recent surge in inflation has blotted its copybook. The report explains that the government's overall record on this front has been very good, with the exception of the last few months, which, it claims, is the result of global forces, which it cannot control. Overall, if one were to take the report at its face value, the UPA government can begin its build-up to the general elections scheduled for 2009 with a sense of accomplishment and confidence that the electorate will respond positively to its record.
However, neither economics nor politics is about taking things at their face value. On the first, there is no question that the growth performance of the economy over the past five years (since the final year of the NDA government) has given India a prominent place on the global investment list. Five years ago, the world talked about India's economic potential; today, that potential has been converted into reality. Even on the infrastructure front progress has been visible in recent times. Airport privatisation and the ultra-mega power plants are important examples, even if their benefits are not immediately in hand. But, notwithstanding these, the gap between the demand for and supply of infrastructure is widening, hurting both the growth momentum and the quality of life for the average voter. Inappropriately designed and inefficiently implemented projects will do nothing to solve the problem.
Shifting focus to the inclusiveness agenda, results are what will eventually matter, not programmes or initiatives. Perhaps in recognition of this, the government has changed tack. Recent announcements suggest a reversion to the discretionary command-and-control approach that was discredited two decades ago. This is not a good sign at all. It negates the huge benefits that the economy has obtained from the reforms that have been implemented by all the governments that have been in office since 1991.
On the political front, the past few months have not been good for the UPA. It has lost assembly elections in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, while its ally, the CPI(M), has showed significant weaknesses in the local government elections in West Bengal. As tempting as it is to attribute electoral outcomes to a whole range of local specifics, widespread rejection of the ruling coalition cannot but be interpreted as increasing frustration with the government's performance.The stark reality of contemporary Indian politics is that however significant the government's achievements may be, they seem to be perpetually several steps behind people's aspirations. |
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