Business Standard / New Delhi May 26, 2008, 4:32 IST
Karnataka can breathe half a sigh of relief as after two coalitions in four years, the assembly elections have thrown up a clear winner, the BJP. But the sense of relief will not be strong as even with the addition of two victorious rebel candidates who will likely be readmitted to the BJP, the party will barely reach an absolute majority. Besides, the strength of winning independent candidates and those from lesser parties is down by two-thirds. So the scope for organising painless defections is much lower. But perhaps most important, BJP leader B S Yediyurappa, who was deputy chief minister in the previous coalition and is set to become the next chief minister, is known neither for his developmental vision nor administrative capabilities. So it is unlikely that the state will be able to win back the expansion plans of the offshoring majors which have been migrating to other states.
The results bear the clear stamp of Karnataka's traditional politics being at play and voting along caste lines, with the dominant Lingayat community pitching solidly for its candidate Mr Yediyurappa. It had no hesitation in doing so as the BJP had clearly projected him as its chief ministerial candidate. The BJP's campaign began by seeking to exploit the sympathy factor in view of the way it was betrayed by the Janata Dal (Secular). But when the BJP found that the sympathy factor was waning, it switched to the tested formula of focusing on inflation and terrorism. The BJP seems to have gained from the sentiment that it deserves a chance as also the negative factors working against the other two main political parties, Congress and JD(S). The latter has fared miserably, its seats tally going down by more than half. This gives a measure of the popular disapproval of its role in the last four years and the continuing decline of H D Deve Gowda, whose following is now reduced to its core Vokkaliga support base.
As for the Congress, it appears to have been hoist with its own petard of inefficiency and factionalism. It was late in announcing its list of candidates and paid for this by having to contend with a sizeable number of rebel candidates. It suffered from having too many leaders heading too many factions and the inability to project an agreed leader. S M Krishna failed to work his magic. Maybe he was brought in too late but he is bound to be faulted for two reasons. He could not pull the Vokkaligas behind the Congress and also the urban voters of Bangalore, among whom he is supposedly popular. In Bangalore, the BJP won 17 seats and the Congress 10. The turnout in Bangalore was an appalling 44 per cent. What should set the Congress thinking is the way it has squandered the chance presented to it by the sharp rise in the number of urban seats in and around Bangalore as a result of the delimitation exercise. Two senior Congress ministers, including former chief minister Dharam Singh, have lost. Only former deputy chief minister Siddaramaiah was able to rally behind him the backward Kuruba voters. While the results will be a morale booster for the BJP nationally, it is still too early suggest that they portend what can happen in the parliamentary polls next year. The campaign yielded no clear issues and not just caste but also money played a big role in influencing results.
The editor must note the fact that SC/ST have voted in large numbers for BJP and not just Lingayats. Even the Muslims (small percentage) voted for the BJP. Hence, to call it Lingayat victory is an error. There were clear issues like price rise, stability, good governance. Money did play and it plays in every state.The editor is forgotten that North Karnataka has voted overwhelmingly for BJP and there a majority of them are from minorities. The much talked about Rahul Gandhi magic did not work.
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