A historic race for the Democratic nomination for the US presidential election is now into its final phase, with a woman and a half-African-American competing bitterly for the big prize. Both know that, whoever wins, history will have been made. For the first time since the United States was born, one of the two major parties will have put forward a candidate who is not a white male. At this stage of the race, and whether Hillary Clinton likes it or not, the nomination is now all but certain to go to Barack Obama, who has more delegates and a higher percentage of the popular vote. Though he has not yet tied up the 2,025 delegates that he needs to be sure of the nomination, Senator Clinton cannot possibly win enough delegates now to overtake Senator Obama. And so, come November, it should be a face-off between a young, first-time senator with a record of community service and capable of soaring oratory, and a battle-hardened Vietnam veteran, John McCain, considered to be a maverick in his own Republican party.
Some months ago, few had heard of Mr Obama and most Democrats had assumed that their candidate would be Ms Clinton, while most Republicans had written off Mr McCain. Such are the vagaries of electioneering.
More unexpected swings may be coming. It had initially been assumed that this was an election that the Republicans could not possibly win, so poorly do Americans think of President Bush's handling of the Iraq war and of the economy. That safe assumption can no longer be made, because Senator Obama's skin colour will almost certainly be a polarising factor despite his effort to rise above such divisions. Also, most polls show that in the key battleground states, Mr McCain scores over Mr Obama in the popularity sweepstakes. Also, as someone who is not very well known across the country, Mr Obama runs the risk of his campaign being derailed by unexpected developments like his former pastor's racist comments — and the Republicans are no slouches when it comes to exploiting such episodes.
As for what the candidates mean for India, it is clear that neither is going to look this way in the manner that Presidents Clinton and Bush did. Neither will suport the civilian nuclear deal if that is not tied up before President Bush lays down office, as shown by their voting behaviour in the Senate. Mr Obama has spoken out on the outsourcing issue, and Mr McCain's idea of a coalition of democracies around the world taking on the rest is unlikely to cut much ice in New Delhi, which does not want more tensions with China, which will be targeted in such a programme.
India views US elections without caring for its self interest. Democrats have been hostile to our nuclear ambitions. Obama will oppose the nuclear deal proposed by Bush. McCain will support it as Republicans want India to counter China besides helping ease fuel shortage that makes our atomic power stations run at 50% capacity. Yet most Indian stupidly support Democrats! Bush is the most India friendly US President ever as he really delivered! Why should we care about his other policies?
The conundrum over Mr Obama and Miss Hillary Clinton is almost over but the real battle will start in November when Novice Obama will take on heads on to Vetern McCain in the battle for USA President.
The nuclear deal being taken up by the two in different manners doesn't make sense as India itself doesn't want go ahead.
What will be important will be the way things will be churning as they have done in the past like Obama and McCain coming out of nothing.
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