Wimbledon is Rafael Nadal's to lose. And this despite the fact that his likely opponent in the finals will be Roger Federer — amongst the greatest players of all time, with five consecutive Wimbledon trophies that proclaim him king of grass, the most balletic, athletic and aesthetic presence in tennis.

And yet, it will be Federer who will fight to claim another Grand Slam title, fight to fend off that animal package of adrenaline, testosterone and muscle that is Nadal, fight to assert that he can remain a contender, fight, frankly, to prove that he is not yet history.

Last year's Nadal-Federer Wimbledon final was awfully close. Federer squeaked through on the strength of his incredible serving in the fifth set and the outcome may well have been different had Nadal not suffered an injury in the fourth set.

On grass, last week at the Stella Artois Championship, Nadal overwhelmed his opposition and demonstrated that he can bring his dominating clay court game to the lush green carpet at Wimbledon.

Above all, his demolition of Federer at the French Open finals has now given Nadal a vast mental advantage. Federer's body language at the French Open as he went through the motions of competing conveyed his utter helplessness: What can I possibly do to beat this guy, Federer was asking himself. Two weeks on, and despite heading toward the Federer-favouring grass of Wimbledon, it is not obvious what the answer is.

Once the ball is in play, Nadal is close to being unbeatable. He thinks and knows that he can win any and every point that is a backcourt rally.

On the slower clay, that baseline dominance is evident because he can get to every ball with oodles of time — such is his athleticism and movement — and pummel it from both flanks to nearly any part of the opponent's court. Not only can he get to every ball quicker than anyone else, once he gets to it, the power, spin, depth, and angles of his ground strokes are without compare.

On grass, the faster surface, that baseline dominance can in principle be taken away from Nadal because the ball comes through quicker, hurrying his stroke. But Nadal cannot be hurried enough to take the edge off his ground strokes, and even if he is marginally hurried grass does not require that he hit his full stroke to be in the point.

Speed and athleticism were also the keys to Borg's ability to master grass despite being a clay-court specialist like Nadal. Nadal's quick movements are based on his ability to slide and stretch, which both surfaces — fast grass and slow clay — allow but which hard courts don't to the same extent, explaining Nadal's vulnerability on hard surfaces.

So what can Federer do? For starters, he has to serve exceptionally well. If he has a merely good serving day, there will be so much pressure on him just trying to hold serve — because there will be more and longer baseline rallies — that the battle cannot be truly joined.

Expending physical energy and mental resilience in holding his serve will fatally deplete Federer's ability to go after the Nadal service game, a task made more difficult now that Nadal's serve has moved from being a point-starter to a plausible weapon on grass.

The one Nadal strength that Federer can hope to dilute is angle. He needs to deploy the "Ashe" strategy: what Arthur Ashe did in the 1975 Wimbledon finals to deny Jimmy Connors, the overwhelming favourite in that encounter, the title.

Federer should keep the ball down the middle for most of the rallies, to cut off the angles for Nadal to exploit. Keeping the ball in the middle would give Nadal less court length to work with, restricting his ability to take a big swipe at the ball and load it with top-spin.

Offensively, Federer will have to look for openings to get to the net and exploit his volleying ability. At the French Open, Nadal passed him at the net at will. But Federer cannot try and out-hit Nadal from the base-line. That is a losing strategy. Federer will have to hope that the faster surface will hurry Nadal just enough for Federer to be effective at the net.

Great serving, patient hitting, keeping the ball in the middle, and getting to the net as often as possible behind attacking ground strokes will be the strategy for Federer to approach Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam titles.

If Federer is not up to this, a sad prospect lies ahead: not only will he give up his dominance on grass, not only will his 13th title elude him, it is possible that Federer will never again be a serious contender in the Slams, let alone win another title.

Tennis and sports fans the world over have to start contemplating a future without Federer. Two weeks from now the world may have to accept the reality that, tennis-wise, the King is Dead. Long live the King.

The author is senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and senior research professor, the Johns Hopkins University