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| Foreign funds to increase allocations to India |
| Jitendra Kumar Gupta / Mumbai May 06, 2010, 00:35 IST |
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Domestic markets ride high on better economic environment, concerns over China.
India’s average weight in Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Funds reached an all-time high of 7.91 per cent in March 2010, reflecting the increasingly positive attitude of foreign investors towards Indian equity markets. While India’s fundamentals have been improving and its growth story is looking good, it has benefitted from increasing concerns over China’s markets and its economy. According to data by EPFR Global, which tracks global fund flows and asset allocation, in contrast to India, China’s weight has been continuously dropping, from about 17 per cent in mid-2009 to about 14 per cent at present.
“India’s equity market performance has helped it gain fund allocations at the expense of China. Concerns about China tightening its monetary policy and possible property sector bubbles there have resulted in poor equity market performance and declining allocation by fund managers,” says Brad Durham, managing director, EPFR Global. Even in comparison to Asia funds (excluding Japan), India’s weight has been growing. It reached its highest level in recent history at 8.54 per cent as compared to 4.75 per cent in June 2008 and 3.6 per cent in May 2005.
Chinese worries
China’s heating economy and a possible bubble has been in news for quite some time now as if this could act as a spoilsport for the rest of the emerging markets. Even some global money managers have turned cautious about its economy and the markets. “We expect to a big setback in China. There is 99 per cent possibility that China will slow down considerably and I would say there is 30 per cent chance that it will crash,” Marc Faber had said in an earlier interview to The Smart Investor.
India’s strong fundamentals
Global fund managers continue to increase allocations to India due to reasons which include the growth potential of the economy and earnings growth of Indian companies. “Fund managers are also finding valuations less challenging today compared to the past, when Indian equities were trading at higher multiples,” says Durham.
Besides valuations, India is also seen as a relatively safe haven. “Relative to the global markets, the Indian market has low beta or is considered to be less risky. Also, we do not have excessive valuations and any sort of bubble shaping up in the economy or property markets,” says A K Sridhar, CIO, IndiaFirst Life Insurance Company.
FII investments: Quantum jump
Increasing foreign investors and their exposure to India is good news for domestic investors, as it will improve liquidity on the bourses, as well as provide funding to Indian companies. The number of registered foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has risen from about 400 in 1996 to 1,711 (up from 1,600 as on March 2009) and 5,376 registered sub-accounts.
Consequently, FII investments in Indian equity markets have been on the rise. From a mere Rs 10,803 crore in 1996, FIIs invested a staggering Rs 84,278.47 crore in 2009. For the year to date (in 2010), they have invested about Rs 29,500 crore in the Indian markets.
The road ahead
Today, India’s weight in global emerging markets is almost half compared to China. While there could be short-term aberrations, experts believe there is more room for Indian markets to attract global funds and, thus, its weight in emerging markets funds could increase in the long run.
While there is a huge gap in between India and China, this could narrow to some extent. Experts believe India might not attract the same amount of money as China in absolute terms, but India’s allocation in terms of percentage will definitely rise. Even if it improves by one or two percentage points, it will make a huge difference to the markets here.
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