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| Frank Sieren & Andreas Sieren: China syndrome | | Not too worried by Japan's nuclear catastrophe, the Chinese view nuclear technology as a necessary evil |
| Frank Sieren & Andreas Sieren / Mar 22, 2011, 00:48 IST |
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Chinese media report freely on the gritty Japanese nuclear disaster. There were even bulk SMSs circulating sent by scaremongers: They claimed a radiation cloud would reach China within 24 hours. But most people in China remained calm, almost uninterested. The government has not been trying to cover things up. It does not react with harsh restrictions on reporters as they would have, had the catastrophe happened in China. The question of nuclear safety is treated with no more than a passing mention by Chinese politicians these days. In a special press conference, the vice minister of environment covered the topic adequately: “We remain on course”, was the tenor. And that means, by 2030, the Chinese government will have to build more than 200 nuclear power plants; 25 are already under construction.
The leadership and the people hold similar sentiments about this unfolding tragedy. In public opinion so far, the disaster remains a Japanese disaster, even though the red-hot kiln is just over 2,000 kms away.
Why does nuclear energy leave the Chinese cold? They would reply tersely: All good things will occasionally include something bad. The economic upturn involving so many people requires compromises. If you want growth and reduced CO2 emissions, then nuclear power is better than coal. Each technology makes life easier, and that usually involves a few drawbacks. But in a worst case scenario, countless people may be contaminated, the counter-argument goes.
The Chinese know that, of course. But they also know that every year thousands of people die in accidents in Chinese coal mines. The tangible pollution from burning coal is a lot closer to them than the potential contamination of environment and people by nuclear power. And most people, for the time being, have other worries; corruption, rising costs of living, and a lack of an adequate legal system.
For the Chinese people as well as for the country’s leadership, nuclear power constitutes an environment-friendly technology that is mentioned in the same breath as wind and solar energy. If in the new five-year plan, the Politburo wants to emphasise qualitative economic growth, there is little dissent that nuclear power should be part of this. It is other topics that raise public discontent. With the contaminated milk powder tragedy killing many babies, the Chinese were so incensed that the leadership showed unease and responded by censoring reporting on the issue. The difference is immediately obvious to almost every Chinese person: Contaminated milk powder could have easily been avoided by checking on the responsible manufacturers; nuclear power plants, however, are a necessary evil.
And the people understand the main argument of the leadership in favour of nuclear power: China needs to develop all available energy sources if its economy is to continue to grow. Therefore, China has become the world leader in wind energy as well as solar energy. Chinese buyers are to be spotted any place in the world where there is oil. Energy is essential for the Middle Kingdom. As long as the lights do not go out, very few Chinese question the government’s energy policies. In fact, less than five years ago, workers in Shanghai had to report on Sundays for shifts as factory production was disrupted during the week due to limited electricity supplies. This is no longer the case.
Does this equanimity have to do with the fact that Chinese have not yet suffered a serious nuclear accident? Possibly. The engineers among the leadership, and that is the majority of them, will certainly not be taking any chances on it. They are careful. When it comes to nuclear power plants in China, costs are not an issue. The Chinese buy state of the art reactors of the latest generation from foreign suppliers. Bear in mind that the Japanese power plant in Fukushima was commissioned in the early 1970s. Even the older power plants in China are fifteen years younger than Fukushima.
The Chinese have taken over the pebble-bed technology from the Germans, which is considered particularly safe. German scientists had worked intensely on this for years, before the German government decided to quit nuclear energy. After the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, public opposition in Germany rendered any discussion of technical advantages of nuclear technology impossible. The Chinese gratefully took over the blueprints. In the meantime, they invested a lot of money and are building the first commercial pebble-bed reactor. The intention of the government is to produce many plants and in the future export these. Small plants for the developing world, big ones for major industrial nations.
The Chinese leaning to careless building makes their nuclear ambitions appear risky to the outside world. But the government is under pressure to keep the economy going and is pushing onward relentlessly. It seems almost inevitable that one day something will go wrong. Regarding nuclear technology, it may have been safer for the world if the Germans had continued building the reactors. But many Germans also have good reasons for opposing nuclear energy. The fallout from Chernobyl taught them a bitter lesson.
But the Chinese interest in nuclear technology is not exceptional. The Indians think along these lines, so do the Brazilians and even a large number of Americans. So: A majority of the world. In vowing to continue their nuclear programme even in the face of the Japanese crisis, the Chinese, again, seem to be getting ahead of the curve.
Frank Sieren is a bestselling author and has been living in Beijing for 15 years. Andreas Sieren is a journalist and a former UN staffer.
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