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| Frank Sieren & Andreas Sieren: Obama's Asian imbroglio |
| Frank Sieren & Andreas Sieren / Nov 15, 2009, 00:07 IST |
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The US President’s visit to the region begins a new game with new rules.
This weekend, US President Barack Obama will meet with Asean heads of state during the Apec Summit in Singapore. It won’t be a comfortable inaugural visit for Obama to Asia, which has become the economic locomotive of the world. East Asia has regrouped during the global financial crisis. And the big question for Asia is: How do we become more independent of the US’ ups and down?
Already, prior to the recent meeting of the Finance Ministers of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) in Singapore, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had to eat some humble pie. In a joint newspaper statement with the Singaporean and Indonesian finance ministers Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Tharman Shanmugaratnam, he conceded: “As US households save more and the US reduces its fiscal deficit, others must spur greater growth off private demand in their own economies.” The Asians just nodded, as America battles the economic crisis.
During the meeting, the two sides came into sharp contrast. Times of high levels of consumption on credit, which kept the US economy going, are over, conceded Geithner. The global economy won’t return to the pre-crisis pattern, added Singapore’s Finance Minister Shanmugaratnam diplomatically. He could have also said that America is likely to remain weak.
In his briefing to Obama, Geithner hopefully made it clear what Obama needs to gear himself up for. Asians have become more self-confident, and taken their fate into their own hands. The financial crisis has made them move closer together and not further apart.
As early as 1990, the then Prime Minister of Malaysia and strong supporter of Asian values, Mahathir Mohamed, argued for the East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC) — which was designed to include the Asean states as well as China, South Korea and Japan, hence only Asian. Not even Australia and Oceania were part of the club. Mahathir’s push for EAEC came as a direct response to the founding of the Apec a year earlier, supported mainly by Australia, the US and Japan.
In particular Japan had distanced itself from a exclusively Asian community to avoid jeopardising its relationship with the US. But the EAEC has not taken off. Not without America. And relations with China were shaky. The bloody protests at Tiananmen Square had occurred just a year earlier. Now, however, an Asian unity has re-emerged.
For many years, the US has used Apec to test its foreign policy in Asia and to learn more about Asian unity. After the Obama visit, the US is probably going to have to strategise about what it can offer to Asia to remain politically relevant. Through its economic policy, the US has accelerated the process of Asian unity.
Surprisingly, as Asians have begun to co-operate more closely during the crisis, the western industrial nations have drifted further apart.
The recent G20 Summit in London indicated substantive differences between the US and Europe. The point of dispute: Stronger regulation of financial markets, proposed by the UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and co-developed by the former German Minister of Finance Peer Steinbrück and French President Nicolas Sakorzy. The US strongly opposed that plan.
But also from within Europe differences prevail. That is no surprise considering the different levels of success in dealing with the crisis. Germany can already see the light at the end of the tunnel while the UK is still struggling.
The situation is different in Asia.
While two or three countries are touting for dominance in Europe, the powers in Asia are more straightforward and have emerged more clearly during the crisis.
China is the political and economic locomotive. Not even Japan, still the biggest economy and democracy in Asia, can contest China’s leadership. The country has lost a lot of steam during the crisis and finds itself at unchartered political cross roads.
Japan is currently balancing between an alliance based on military strategic considerations and democratic values with the US and economic coercion to closer collaborate with its Asian neighbours. The case is complicated. Despite its close military alliance with the US, Japan knows that it needs the Chinese market more than ever as the Americans no longer consume. In addition, Japan knows China is located strategically to produce cost-effectively.
Currently, Japan prefers an Asian alliance that includes the US. The new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama recently supported this idea.
Australia is also undecided.
But these two countries are the only ones in proposing a different route. Governments in Asia acknowledge this, but the proposal is unlikely to win a majority support. Confronted to take a decision, Japan and Australia will rather give preference to economic necessities than to abstract strategic interests. Jobs before security. That would mean more Asia and less US. Especially the government of Japan faces strong opposition to the American military bases in the country. There have always been protests, recently these reached over 20,000 people.
It is not an easy task for Obama to represent American interest with this new power balance emerging. Not yet an easy task.
Obama knows that Asian co-operation needs time to develop. He can take some consolation knowing that closer economic co-operation in Asia will likely reduce the danger of conflicts. And that is in America’s interest, being continually busy with conflicts in other parts of the world.
Obama can also look ahead and acquire a taste for the new reality. In a world that moves closer together, it can be more advantageous to have clear interest represented by the different regions. The Americans will then look after American interests, the Europeans after European interest and the Asians after Asian interest. That appears to be preferable to weak and stretched inter-regional clubs with diverse members trying to agree on rotten compromises.
(Frank Sieren has been living in Beijing for 15 years and is regarded as one of the leading German China experts. His brother Andreas is a specialist in international relations and development aid. He worked for many years for the United Nations in Asia and Africa)
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