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| Gold trading near six-month highs |
| Nicholas Larkin & Halia Pavliva / Mumbai Sep 07, 2009, 00:51 IST |
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Gold was little changed, trading near a six-month high in New York as the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. Silver declined from a 13-month high. Gold futures, after reaching $999.50, the highest price since February 23, posted the biggest weekly gain since April.
The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, declined as much as 0.6 per cent. Gold tends to gain when the dollar weakens. The metal fell as much as 1.1 per cent before paring the decline.
$967 an ounce, reversal indicator
“The recovery in prices is bullish and with US government report indicating the highest unemployment in 26 years, the buck appears poised for a fall,” Ralph Preston, a Heritage West Futures Inc. analyst in San Diego. “Only a close below $967 an ounce hints at a market reversal.”
Gold futures for December delivery slipped $1, or 0.1 per cent, to $996.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. The price jumped 4 per cent for the week, the biggest advance for a most-active contract since April 24. In London, bullion for immediate delivery rose $2.55, or 0.3 per cent, to $994.40 an ounce.
‘Overbought’ market
“The market’s rally over the last few days, while impressive, has left the short-term charts in overbought territory,” said Al Abaroa, a senior commodities strategist at OptionsPro Corp. in Plantation, Florida. “A pullback can go down to as low as the $965 range and still keep the bullish chart pattern intact.” Some traders analyse technical levels in charts to gauge price directions.
The US jobless rate in August jumped to 9.7 per cent, the highest since 1983 and more than economists had projected, Labor Department data showed today. Employers cut another 2,16,000 jobs in the month, fewer than expected and the least in a year.
“We are confident that gold will not rise anywhere near its previous inflation-adjusted highs,” David Barclay, a commodities strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London, and David Semmens, New York-based economist at the bank, said in a report.
“We believe gold will continue to rise into 2010 but will then move lower in the first quarter of 2010 as the dollar strengthens,” Barclay and Semmens said. “However, the uptrend will resume throughout the rest of 2010, and we see gold averaging $1,100 an ounce over the full year.”
Economic outlook
“With the consumer-price-index rate expected to trend towards zero by 2010 and an anticipated peak in the unemployment rate, the misery index should rise modestly near-term, but a repeat of the 1980 surge is unlikely in our view,” the analysts said. The so-called misery index combines inflation and unemployment figures.
Spot prices in London are 3.2 per cent below the record $1,032.70 an ounce set in March 2008 and have rallied every year since 2000. The metal reached the year’s high of $1,006.29 on February 20 in London, the last time it was above $1,000. “Maybe an attack on the round figure is being shelved until after” the September 7 US Labour Day holiday, Jon Nadler, a Kitco Inc. senior analyst in Montreal, said.
“It is likely that $1,000 will be tested again during the course of this month,” Peter Fertig, the owner of Quantitative Commodity Research in Hainburg, Germany said. “There has been a flight out of risky assets into gold as a safe haven. It’s been out of stocks.”
The MSCI World Index of equities climbed as much as 1.3 percent, while posting a 1.7 percent decline for the week, the first drop in eight weeks, on concern that a six-month rally has outpaced the prospects for earnings and economic growth.
ETF holdings increase
Bullion held in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, increased 14.65 metric tons to 1,078 tons, data on the company’s Web site showed. The fund held a record 1,134.03 tons on June 1. Most participants in a Bloomberg News survey, 21 of 26 traders, investors and analysts, said gold will rise next week. While four forecast lower prices, one participant was neutral.
Gold’s recent advance has been “fueled mostly by technical buying from speculators who were afraid to miss the next price push in gold,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said in a note. “It could start drilling the bottom as soon as profit-taking kicks in and these record long speculative positions start unwinding.”
Monthly highs for silver
Silver futures for December delivery slipped 0.5 cent to $16.285 an ounce in New York after earlier touching $16.405, the highest price since August 7, 2008. Futures rose 9.9 per cent for the week, the biggest increase for a most-active contract since May 8.
In London, silver for immediate delivery advanced 0.7 per cent to $16.23 an ounce.
The authors are Bloomberg News columnists. The opinions expressed are their own
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