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| IMF raises global growth forecasts, but headwinds stiff |
| AFP/PTI / Istanbul Oct 01, 2009, 13:31 IST |
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The International Monetary Fund raised growth forecasts for most economies on Thursday as the global economy pulls out of a steep nosedive, but warned recovery faces stiff headwinds.
The IMF projected the global economy would shrink 1.1 per cent this year and rebound to annualised growth of 3.1 per cent in 2010, better than July forecasts of 1.4 contraction in 2009 and 2.5 per cent growth in 2010.
"After a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial markets," the fund said in its semiannual World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
The Washington-based institution released the report in Istanbul, ahead of October 6-7 annual meetings in the Turkish city with the World Bank.
The US economy, the world's largest, was recovering better than previously estimated, the IMF said, projecting a 2.7 per cent decline this year and 1.5 per cent expansion in 2010, compared with minus 2.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, the pace of decline was moderating, with the 16-nation eurozone seen returning to growth of 0.3 per cent in 2010, instead of the 0.3 per cent fall projected in the July WEO update.
And emerging and developing economies were ahead of the pack on the path to recovery, forecast to clock growth of 5.1 per cent in 2010, led by China and India, at 9.0 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.
Driving the pick-up in global growth was the robust performance of Asian economies, underpinned by stabilisation or modest recovery elsewhere, the IMF said.
Other stimulative factors were a rebound in manufacturing, replenishment of inventories, returning consumer confidence and firmer housing markets.
The IMF credited strong public policies across advanced and many emerging economies that supported demand and reduced fears of a global depression for triggering the recovery from the steepest global drop in output and trade since World War II.
Nevertheless, the IMF cautioned that the data shows the rebound will be sluggish and "for quite some time, jobless," and credit will remain tight.
Global growth of around 3.0 per cent in 2010 would be "far below" the pace before the financial crisis struck in 2007 and accelerated in September 2008 after the bankruptcy of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers.
And during 2010-2014, a lacklustre pace of slightly above 4.0 per cent was estimated, less than the 5.0 per cent growth in the immediate pre-crisis years.
"Downside risks remain a concern. The main risk is that private demand in advanced economies remains very weak," the IMF economists wrote.
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