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| Make nice-nice |
| Edward Hadas / Jun 26, 2010, 00:42 IST |
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G20: By many standards, the G20 summit is likely to be a failure. The leaders of the world's most important countries are almost certain to leave Toronto on Sunday deeply divided.
The fiscal division has been getting a lot of attention. Crudely put, the argument is between the deficit-loving United States and austerity-loving Germany. The two sides will probably agree, a bit grudgingly, for each to go its own way. But there is a more significant global fiscal division. Big deficits are much more of an issue in rich than in poorer countries. The International Monetary Fund calculated that the fiscal deficit in advanced economies increased by 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2009, to 8.8 per cent of GDP. In emerging and low-income economies the budget deterioration was much smaller, 4.2 and 2 percentage points, respectively. In both case, deficits are now less than 5 per cent of GDP.
Most poorer, fast expanding countries should be able to grow their way out of their not too precarious fiscal situations. From their perspective, governments of many affluent countries are behaving badly. Their enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus plans could put the global financial system at risk, just to keep their GDP per person from falling to levels that poorer countries still dream of reaching.
The leaders of emerging economies could argue that they, not the spoiled old guard, should guide the global fiscal agenda, and while they're at it, trade, environmental and research rules as well. But they are not yet ready.
Other deep divisions within the G20 do not cut exactly along the wealth line. Ageing and young countries have different needs. Resource exporters and importers have different desires. Xenophobes and cosmopolitans cannot find common ground on migration.
There is much to argue about, this weekend and for years to come. But for all their divisions, today's leaders share some basic values. They want to talk and not fight, and they value peace and prosperity above everything else. In the long sweep of history, the willingness to get together in Toronto should be judged a great success.
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