The monsoon is showing no sign of receding even three weeks after the withdrawal date of September 1.

So far, the cumulative rainfall in the country has been well distributed in terms of area. Merely 2 per cent of the land received below normal rainfall till September 17.

Several markets in the Malwa region of Madhya Pradesh witnessed fresh arrivals of soybean. However, they fetched relatively low prices because of their higher moisture content.

The prices of the key kharif oilseeds are expected to remain subdued in the coming weeks owing to anticipated higher output in the wake of the nearly 9.3 per cent rise in plantings and favourable weather.
 

The outlook for the overall oilseed production in the current kharif season is also quiet encouraging notwithstanding the shortfall in groundnut acreage. Total area under oilseeds has exceeded by around 3.5 lakh hectares as compared to last year. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India expects the total production to be between 18 and 19 million tonnes.

The wholesale prices of different edible oils have already fallen by 3.5 to 6.5 per cent in past one month. Further decline is not ruled out in view of unabated downturn in the international prices due to easing of pressure for conversion of vegetable oils into bio-fuel.

The production of rice, too, is likely to touch a new record because of a rise in acreage. However, the output of basmati is still uncertain as the dreaded blight disease has been spotted in several parts of Punjab, notably the Sangrur, Hoshiarpur, Patiala and Ludhiana districts.

Cotton output, on the other hand, may remain around the last year’s level despite some decline in acreage. The optimism stems from higher coverage, over 80 per cent, under the pest-protected transgenic Bt-hybrids.

However, the output of pulses is expected to drop sharply due to poor sowing in the major pulse-growing states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

The import of pulses may, consequently, rise to beyond 3 million tonnes, against about 2.5 million tonnes last year. The Union Cabinet on Thursday authorised the food ministry to arrange imports of around 1 million tonnes of pulses from Myanmar on government-to-government account to meet the shortfall and keep a check on escalating prices of the protein-rich grains.

The output of coarse cereals is also slated to drop significantly owing to poor plantings. But maize may buck this trend despite a marginal shortfall in acreage due to higher coverage under hybrids and favourable weather. Sugarcane area and output is also expected to fall due to cyclic nature of the crop. Jute sowing has been adversely affected because of moisture inadequacy.

The overall rainfall in the current monsoon season has till now been the best in past six years in terms of distribution though the quantum of rainfall was relatively higher in 2003, 2006 and 2007. The number of subdivisions getting normal or above normal rainfall this year is 34 (out of total 36 subdivisions), which is the highest since 2003.
 

Similarly, the number of subdivisions falling in the deficient rainfall category is merely two this year, the lowest since 2003. These are western Madhya Pradesh (minus 22 per cent) and the subdivision comprising north-eastern states of Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (minus 24 per cent).

Of all districts in the country, 76 per cent fall in the normal or above-normal rainfall category, while 24 per cent are in the deficient rainfall bracket.

On the whole, the country has received 809.9 mm rainfall, which is about two per cent below the normal of 828.5 mm between June 1 and September 17.

The total water storage in the 81 major reservoirs was reported on September 18 to be around 106.25 billion cubic metres (BCM), which is lower than last year’s 118.7 BCM but higher by about 8.68 per cent than the previous 10 years average (normal) of 97.76 BCM.

This position is expected to improve further as the weather office is predicting more rainfall in several regions in next few days.

The weather update issued on Friday warns of heavy to very heavy downpours in east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh and isolated heavy rainfall in Gujarat and north Konkan region till tomorrow.

Isolated heavy to very heavy showers are predicted also for the north-western region comprising Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

(The weekly Monsoon Watch series concludes with this piece.)

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