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| Production of most crops to be near normal |
| Surinder Sud / Sep 10, 2009, 00:57 IST |
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The belated surge in the monsoon in September, when it should normally be packing up, has lessened the worries about big drop in kharif harvest. Besides, it has generated optimism about good and timely rabi sowing which can help partly offset the likely drop in kharif production.
The latest crop outlook for the current kharif is that the production of most crops, barring paddy and groundnut, may be near normal. In fact, the output of cotton and some pulses like tur (arhar or pigeon pea) may even exceed the last year’s level to touch new peaks thanks to higher plantings and extended monsoon season. But rice and groundnut harvest is slated drop.
GOOD TIMES
Cumulative rainfall till September 2, 2009 (in mm) |
| Region |
Actual |
Normal |
% Chg |
| North-west |
312.80 |
509.30 |
-39 |
| Central India |
686.20 |
822.70 |
-17 |
| South peninsula |
511.40 |
572.30 |
-11 |
| North-east |
863.00 |
1164.60 |
-26 |
| All-India |
565.30 |
731.70 |
-23 |
| Source: IMD |
According to the latest reckoning of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the deficit in the monsoon rainfall has shrunk to 20 per cent by September 7 from 23 per cent on September 2 and 25 per cent a week earlier.
What is even more significant is that the IMD expects this deficiency to diminish further in the remaining part of this month to end the 2009 monsoon season with an overall rainfall paucity of between 15 and 18 per cent.
This will be close to the IMD’s revised monsoon forecast, issued on August 11, which had put the likely rainfall during the entire four-month season (June to September) to be 13 per cent (plus or minus 4 per cent) short of normal.
If this happens, the concern over poor refilling of water reservoirs may also ebb. However, as of now, the situation is unsatisfactory. The total water storage in the country’s major 81 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) was 68.82 billion cubic metres (BCM) on September 3, which is good 28.58 BCM, or 29.3 per cent below the last year’s corresponding level. It is also about 22.48 BCM, or 24.6 per cent below normal level (10 years’ average).
Unless, the water stock improves perceptibly, in the next couple of weeks the concern will continue over the availability of water for hydel power production as well as for irrigating the crops in the ensuing rabi season.
The latest information on crop sowing collected by the weather-watch group of the agriculture ministry indicate that the total area brought under kharif crop by the end of August was nearly 87 million hectares which is merely 8 per cent less than last year.
The major shortfall in area is in paddy (down by 6.36 million hectares, or 17.3 per cent) and groundnut (down by nearly 1 million hectares, or 18 per cent). Though the paddy area numbers may improve somewhat as more information about the late sowing pours in, the groundnut numbers are unlikely to change much.
The shortfall in paddy plantings has been mainly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. Some of the paddy area has gone to pulses and cotton because of poor rains and expectations of better returns.
The groundnut acreage, on the other hand, dropped in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat because of lack of rains during the main sowing period. The growers also do not anticipate good returns from this oilseed because the prices are expected to remain stable due to continued high edible oil imports.
However, soybean acreage is marginally larger than last year and crop condition is reported to be excellent.
The good rains in the main soybean belt of Madhya Pradesh have brightened the prospects of a good soy harvest.
The area under pulses, whose prices have spurted to unprecedented highs in recent months, has expanded by about 3.75 lakh hectares, or 4.2 per cent, to 9.30 million hectares, against 8.93 million hectares last year. The main gains have been in tur (up about 1 lakh hectares) and mung (up 2 lakh hectares).
The leaning of the farmers towards cotton cultivation has emerged quite distinctly this year. The acreage under this crop was estimated at 9.62 million hectares, up 1.13 million hectares, or 13 per cent, from last season’s 8.48 million tonnes.
Analysts feel that this increase could be due to anticipation of high prices despite no increase in the minimum support price. The country’s cotton exports are projected to rise as the demand for this natural fibre has begun to pick up again in the international market but the supplies continue to be constrained.
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