Deficient rain in June is likely to raise the area under basmati (rice) cultivation by 3-5 per cent as this rice variety is sown generally late.
According to trade sources, basmati is sown in about 4-5 per cent of the total area under rice cultivation. But this time, basmati acreage is likely to go up because of monsoon delay. However, this is unlikely to affect the output of non-basmati rice in the country as per the initial estimates.
On Wednesday, the meteorological department brought down the annual rainfall forecast to 93 per for this season, which is 3 per cent lower than the normal 97 per cent of the long-term average. As of June 19, India received just over 50 per cent of the usual rain, sounding alarm bells for over 60 per cent of paddy growers who are solely dependent on monsoon rain.
“The delay in rainfall might help divert rice acreage to basmati from non-basmati rice,” said Basmati Rice Farmers and Exporters Development Forum’s President Vinod Ahuja, who is also a senior agriculturist and farm expert.
The sowing of non-basmati rice is moving very slowly due to the deficient rainfall. It has been nearly 20 per cent lower so far this season as compared to the same period last year. As the monsoon is delayed by over a fortnight, farmers, especially in the North-East and central India, are awaiting a revival in the monsoon to commence paddy sowing.
Encouraged by the inclusion of the 1121 Pusa variety of rice in the basmati category, which got better prices and good demand for exports last year, farmers in Punjab and Haryana are willing to dedicate additional area to this variety. Last year, prices of this variety surged to Rs 3,500 per quintal from Rs 2,500 due to higher overseas demand.
“Even if rain starts in late June or early July, the rice output will be covered. Hence, we do not estimate any decline in total output this year. However, a further stretch of dry spell may cause lower output,” said Vijay Setia, president of All India Rice Exporters’ Association.
Further, the late sowing may reduce yield and stretch the crop maturing period. Therefore, farmers planning to sow the next crop, that is wheat, after harvesting the early paddy crop might be affected, he added.
The June onset of monsoon merely covers 5 per cent area, that too under non-basmati varieties. But the speed of sowing increases with the advancement of monsoon to cover the full area by July-end.
Basmati is generally sown during late July and early August. By that time, farmers have a clear picture of rain and they are able to take a decision about paddy sowing. Since, basmati is sown towards the end of the season, the leftover acreage, especially in basmati growing states—including Punjab, Haryana, and some parts of Uttar Pradesh—is covered under this variety.
A marginal three per cent reduction might not have much impact on the overall rice output of the country. But, further deficiency in July and any dry spell in August might lower yield and overall area under paddy cultivation, said V K Chaturvedi, managing director of BSE-listed Usher Agro, a paddy and wheat processing company.
During the kharif season 2008-09, total acreage under paddy cultivation slipped marginally to 43.20 million hectares (ha) from 43.77 million ha in the previous year, recording an output of 99.37 million tonnes compared to 96.69 million tonnes in the previous season.
Dilip jee, it won't proper to say that crunch of rainfall and delay in rainfall may increase the growing prospects for basmati rice. This is true that basmati is sown in late July and early August but apart from this farmers have alternatives as so many varieties of non basmati rice have been developed that are generally used to be sown in late period and returns better production. A compared to Basmati cost of production of these varieties is lower. You must know that cost of production of basmati rice is much more than non-basmati rice. Along with productivity of basmati is also very low as compared to non-basmati. Another aspects should also be concerned that despite of sowing in late phase basmati needs higher rainfall than the non-basmati rice.
Regards,
Ajeet Kumar
Research Analyst
smc global securities private limited new Delhi
mobile-9891334881
email-aboutajeet@gamil.com
Posted by: Dilip
June 30 , 2009, 14:17 IST
This is not what I say. Industry experts like Basmati Rice Farmers and Exporters Development Forum's president Vinod Ahuja, who himself is an agriculturist, has said that. The observation was supported by Vijay Setia, pesident of All India Rice Exporters' Association. Hence, I do not see any logic in questionning industry veterans' views. regards, dilip
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