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| Restating the status quo |
| Neha Chowdhry / New Delhi Aug 12, 2010, 00:42 IST |
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November is a busy month for the US when it comes to cementing its shifting relationship with Asia. The first Asian G20 Summit is being held in Seoul on the 11th and 13th, followed quickly by the Apec leaders’ meet in Yokohama on the 13th and 14th. Furthermore, the US mid-term elections are taking place on the 2nd, which puts pressure on the “Pacific President” to shore up promises to the Asian partners he is about to meet.
As global power moves eastward, the US is feeling the pressure to prioritise Asia as an economic and political partner, especially in the light of its own declining hegemony after the crisis. Among the myriad of challenges the US is juggling — from cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis to navigating the wars it is deeply entrenched in — the necessity to remain engaged with Asia, one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, must be addressed.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got things off on the right foot when she made Asia her first trip abroad. President Obama came to Asia in November 2008 and, at his first stop in Tokyo, referred to himself as the “Pacific President”.
The world has changed after the 2008 crisis. America is no longer the unquestioned global leader, able to manipulate its interests on the basis of unchallenged economic and political power. Today, the US is facing a stunted growth of 3 per cent, ever-swelling debt, an unemployment rate creeping towards double digits and a disenchanted citizenry who want solutions to their financial woes. Asia, on the other hand, is on the rise — with China and India forecasted to continue growing at 8.5 per cent.
It is this shift in the tectonic plates of global power that is the subject of Simon Tay’s Asia Alone - The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide From America. The book focuses on the evolution of the relationship between Asia and the US after the global economic crisis. Acknowledging the decline of America and a rising Asia with regionalist aspirations, Tay warns that there is an ever-increasing tendency for a division to occur. Yet, he points to their deep-rooted interdependence and to the fact that such a divide would bring more harm than good.
Tay is well-placed to comment on the post-crisis divide as he has had a foot in both worlds. A former Member of Parliament in Singapore, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s law and public policy faculties and the current chair of the Singapore Institute of Current Affairs, he has long had his finger on the pulse of the financial and political revolution that Asia has undergone. He has also spent a considerable amount of time in the US, as a visiting professor at Harvard.
According to Tay, Asia’s current disillusionment with the US can also be traced, among other things, to the 1997 Asian crisis, which was triggered by the collapse of the Thai baht and spread rapidly to other Asian economies. The ensuing Washington consensus (and its painful, often damaging, austerity measures) was viewed as US arrogance towards the plight of Asia. Yet, Asia recovered and set up a US-centric production base which led to years of growth for both. A decade later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the US spiralled into its own crisis — yet, this time around, different rules applied. The US, instead of subscribing to its own medicine, went on a spending spree, demonstrating to Asia once again that it did not play by its own rules.
This arrogance is relayed by Tay in a story about the 1998 Apec Summit. Al Gore came in place of Bill Clinton and spoke at an event before the Summit. Tay conveys the shock he and his colleagues felt as Gore used the occasion to subtly chastise the imprisonment of Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister Mahathir’s rogue deputy, by saying: “Calls for democracy, calls for reform… we hear them today — right here, right now — among the brave people of Malaysia.” Gore’s admonishment at an event where he was a guest was viewed by many as an expression of America’s insensitivity and arrogance.
Recognising the unsustainability of the pre-crisis status quo of an America that had dominated a disunited Asia since World War 2, Tay suggests a rebalancing of the US-Asia relationship. Instead of the prevailing model of the US as a hub to the Asian spokes, created through a predominance of bi-lateral agreements in the region, a broader, more multi-lateral approach should be fostered. This can be done through a deeper engagement with Asean, the centrality of which Clinton defined as a core principle of Asian regionalism.
Asia’s regionalism is still nascent as its alphabet soup of institutions are often non-binding and consensus-based, which make it difficult to make tough, collective decisions. Yet, there is no clear leader to replace America in the region. While Asean and China are identified as front-runners, the history of distrust that permeates Asian history prevents either from taking an active and unquestioned role.
For its part, Tay says, Asia should not feel that it has to choose between a slowly declining America and a rising China, but should choose what he refers to as the “Power of &” model. Asia should continue its “Asia alone” policy of deepening ties within the region through Asean, Asean +3 (Japan, China and South Korea) and the East Asian Summit (which includes India, Australia and New Zealand.) At the same time, it should continue to engage the US as an equal partner who can solidify regionalism and growth by acting as a stabilising presence.
The US has a number of opportunities to rebalance its relationship with a rising Asia. First, it should ensure that a second US-Asean Summit comes to fruition. Secondly, it is hosting Apec in Honolulu next year. Accepting the new world economic order and courting Asia as a partner will ensure the US’ continued engagement in one of the fastest-growing parts of the world.
ASIA ALONE
The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide From America
Simon Tay
John Wiley & Sons
206 pages
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