China to remain critical to global demand, says World Steel Association.

India will clock a growth of 8.9 per cent in 2009 compared with the earlier forecast of 2 per cent, the World Steel Association (WSA) said in a statement. It further said that in 2010, the growth estimate for India’s apparent steel use is 12.1 per cent.

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The association, representing 180 steel producers including 19 of the world’s 20 largest steel companies, said that the contraction of 8.6 per cent to 1,104 million tonnes in 2009 was an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009, which predicted a decrease of 14.1 per cent.
 

The factory output measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered the highest growth rate in 22 months, which was reflected in the improvement in the projection for India. Consumer durables posted a 22.3 per cent growth rate compared to 3.9 year-on-year.

The improvement in global figures was largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand from China. China’s apparent steel use in 2009 is expected to increase by 18.8 per cent to reach 526 million tonnes, which is 47 per cent of the world steel apparent use.

WSA also said that with signs of recovery across the world from the beginning of the second half of 2009, global steel demand in 2010 was forecast to grow by 9.2 per cent to 1,206 million tonnes, which implied a recovery to the 2008 level.

Daniel Novegil, chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said, “The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April. According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19 per cent in 2009 and five per cent in 2010. Emerging economies will slow down 17 per cent in 2009 to grow 12 per cent in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies that contracted 34 per cent in 2009 will rebound 15 per cent in 2010. Therefore worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010 but this is expected to be moderate. As before the financial crisis, the emerging economies, especially China, will be the critical factor in driving world steel demand in the near future.”

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