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| Sugar consumption growth to dip this year, say analysts |
| Dilip Kumar Jha / Mumbai Aug 11, 2010, 00:50 IST |
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The growth rate of India’s refined (white) sugar consumption is likely to dip in 2009-10 compared to the compounded annual rate of close to seven per cent since 2006, according to credit rating agency Icra. It believes the rise in consumption will be three per cent.
Despite a marginal decline in consumption during sugar year 2005 (October 2004 - September 2005), partly attributable to high prices, consumption has grown at a decadal average (2000-10) of four per cent to 23.5-24 million tonnes (estimated) in 2009-2010. Consumption increased at an annual average rate of 4.5 per cent during 1987-1997.
 Consumption of gur and khandsari has increased at an annual rate of five per cent in the past five years. In 2009, sugar output plunged to 14.7 mt, half of the previous year, which resulted in consumers buying more of gur and khandsari.
This year, the government is convinced that availability in the country will remain at a comfortable at 26 mt, along with a production estimate of 18.5 mt.
The US department of agriculture has forecast India’s white sugar production at 24.7 mt in 2011, while the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations estimates output at 27.6 mt and 31.9 mt in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Icra says per capita sugar consumption rose to 20 kg in 2009-10 as compared to 19.9 kg in the previous year, while that of gur and khandsari decreased to 8.9 kg this year as against 9.3 kg in 2009. India is the world’s largest consumer, accounting for close to 15 per cent of global consumption.
The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimated total consumption of white sugar at 23.5 mt in 2009-10, while gur and khandsari consumption was, it said, set to decline this year to 10.5 mt as against 10.8 mt last year.
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