What the government needs is a Chief Economic Survivor

The situation is rather complicated. This is because the former chief economic advisor (CEA) to the government, Shankar Acharya, has not resigned. He has merely gone on leave.

This is very important because the UPSC says that there cannot be two CEAs at the same time — unless, of course, a finance minister can bend the rules, as one did about 13 years ago. But for that, he has to have some clout.

Mr Acharya’s replacement was the benign Rakesh Mohan. But since Mr Acharya was still on the muster roll, he was told that he could be called anything but Chief Economic Advisor. So it was agreed that he would be called economic advisor to the finance minister even though he would actually be advising the government.

Why Mr Mohan accepted this arrangement must remain one of those great, unsolved mysteries of the universe. Many people thought he was nuts. A few even told him so.

Anyway, now he has gone and we are almost into November. The Economic Survey is looming on the horizon.

No wonder Mr Sinha is looking for an economist who is also equipped with sound editing and re-writing skills. But those don’t grow on trees.

Still, my advice to Mr Sinha is not to worry because no one reads the Survey anymore. It can safely be downsized to just one chapter of just one page.

Given below is a working draft:

GDP growth: Down; Industrial production: Badly down; Agriculture: Up; Services: Up, down, flat, or what?; Revenues: Down; Expenditure: Up; Disinvestment: Gone for a six; Deficit: Up, up and away, like TWA; Tariffs: Up; Interest rates: Down; Exchange rate: Bimal Jalan sleeps peacefully at night; Export growth: Down; Import growth: Down; Current Account Deficit: Bimal Jalan sleeps peacefully at night; Reforms: Down and out; Innovation: Urdu couplet in the Survey, instead of the Budget.

The new economic advisor, pity the poor sod, has to sanitise all this wonderful news. But to turn night into day, mules into thoroughbreds, you need a very accomplished sophist. Those are not easy to find amongst economists.

Mr Sinha might, therefore, be better-off looking to a PR agency for help rather than one of the economic think-tanks. Or he could ask the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch which might cavil at the Urdu couplet but would be pleased with the other outcomes Mr Sinha has managed to contrive.

However, I rather think that Mr Sinha will insist on getting himself an economist. I fear, too, that one of them will accept. Since in spite of all their sins I have rather a soft corner for economists, here are some suggestions for the new bakra.

One, convince yourself that it is not the government’s fault that things are in such a poor shape. Blame everyone else — the world, September 11, bin Laden, WTO, the media, Saurav Ganguly, but never, ever, not even for a fleeting moment, entertain the doubt that the government might be at fault. That way lies disaster.

Two, forget that economic policy is about economics. It is not. It is about the politics of coalitions, which the Prime Minister manages only through constant appeasement of his cabinet colleagues.

Three, remember that reform is mainly about media management. When a journalist asks you for an appointment, don’t give him an appointment — immediately invite him to lunch, or better still, dinner or, absolutely the best, rush down to see him in his office. Say anything reformist that comes to your mind, the more far-fetched the better. This will create a positive image as Manmohan Singh, Montek Singh and Shankar Acharya will tell you. It is not action but the prospect of action that is important.

Four, frequently ask CII to organise fancy seminars where you will always deliver the “keynote address”. There you can come out of the closet and declare your real preferences. No one will mind.

Five, don’t think you know more than the finance secretary. And be nice to him even when he is yelling at you. Like Oliver Twist, ask for more. Like Gandhiji, turn the other cheek. Six, bow deeply and severally when you see the RBI Governor, for he is the real power these days. And remember to back out of his presence. Slowly, lest he do something dramatic.

Seven, don’t annoy the Planning Commission. It has N K Singh now. Gone are the days when, following Rajiv Gandhi, you could describe it as a “bunch of jokers”. In fact, form a coalition with it so that you can slyly fight the finance ministry.

Eight, keep up a running battle with the commerce ministry and the industry ministry. Nothing will please your bosses more than when you say that their counterparts in these ministries are complete nincompoops.

Nine, stay far, far away from the PMO because you may accidentally wake someone up.

Ten, lest he forget, from time to time remind the finance minister that he doesn’t know.

Eleven, remember to keep a lien on your old job.