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| Surjit S Bhalla: Middle Class and Democracy-II |
| Surjit S Bhalla / New Delhi May 16, 2009, 00:32 IST |
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History may well remember 2009 as the beginning of the historic end of regional party politics in India.
Today, May 16th, 2009 is likely to be remembered as C, D and E days. C for counting, D for a major event day (as made famous by the Allied troops for the date of the invasion and the beginning of the final assault on Germany, June 6, 1944) and E for elimination. Of what, one might ask? Of regional politics in India. Most likely elimination is too strong a word; so let us make it the beginning of the elimination process— a BCDE formation, if you will.
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MIDDLE CLASS VOTES: REVIVAL AFTER STAGNATION
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Election
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Seats Secured By
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Share of Votes Secured By
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| Year |
BJP |
INC |
BJP+INC |
BJP |
INC |
BJP+INC |
| 1989 |
85 |
197 |
282 |
11.40 |
39.50 |
50.90 |
| 1991 |
120 |
244 |
364 |
20.00 |
36.60 |
56.60 |
| 1996 |
161 |
140 |
301 |
20.30 |
28.80 |
49.10 |
| 1998 |
182 |
141 |
323 |
25.60 |
25.80 |
51.40 |
| 1999 |
182 |
114 |
296 |
23.80 |
28.30 |
52.10 |
| 2004 |
138 |
145 |
283 |
21.70 |
26.20 |
47.90 |
| 2009* |
140 |
175 |
315 |
23.00 |
28.70 |
51.70 |
| * Forecasts based on a voting model, and adjustments. |
In my previous article (Middle Class and Democracy-I, Business Standard, May 14th, 2009) I had suggested that a large force was emerging as an important parameter in Indian elections—the role of the middle class. Further, that the values, aspirations, and goals of the middle class were universal across the world (and across time). And these values left little room for narrow parochial considerations, whether such considerations were based on religious beliefs, or extreme ideological beliefs, or differences in language, etc.
A strong prediction of the middle class and democracy thesis is that the two major parties outperform the regional parties. The table documents the vote share and seats of Congress and the BJP in each Lok Sabha election since 1989 (individual, not coalition, data). Barring 1991, the joint seats achieved by the two parties has been in the narrow range of 282 to 323; the joint vote share 47.9 to 52.1 percent, with 1999 as the peak and 2004 as the trough. The two major parties have been able to garner only 50 per cent of the seats and votes, hence the extended era of coalition politics in India. If this is also the future, then the “middle class election hypothesis” will be discredited.
Alternatively, this election could mark the beginning of the end of narrow parochial politics of (outdated) ideology, caste and religion. The emphasis is on the beginning. And a good beginning will be marked by any one, or all of the five signals noted below:
1) Congress + BJP jointly get close to the previous “peak” of 323 seats;
2) The Left gets around 35 seats, perhaps even less than 30;
3) The caste-based parties in UP (Mulayam and Mayawati) get less than 50 seats, perhaps even less than the half-way mark of 40;
4) Caste-based parties in Bihar fail to make a mark;
5) Regional, caste, and ideological parties from Assam to Kerala do badly;
6) What would be consistent with the above is that the regional parties in Tamil Nadu also are booted out; this is not possible in 2009, but if some of the above come true, this will be a genuine possibility in the future.
But there is another implication of the strong role that the middle class will play, and this time it pertains to the two major parties, Congress and the BJP. For the Congress, the warnings are clear. The decline of the Congress started because of the devastating mixture of dynasty and dictatorship. Dynasty remains, and the fact that politics and governance has become a family affair for all shades of politicians should be of little comfort to the Congress. To his credit, Rahul Gandhi realises the drawbacks of dynastic leadership and is courageous enough to openly talk about it. The Congress has also begun to walk the talk, with Manmohan Singh being unquestionably supported for a second term. If the Congress wins and lasts out the full second term, then India would have had the first Prime Minister (since Nehru in 1962) to last two successive five-year terms. Leadership without dynasty—very possible, and whether middle class India applauds, will be known shortly.
The message for the BJP is equally blunt, especially if the BJP stays stationary at the 2004 level and the Congress accelerates to beyond 170 seats. This widening gap is the result of communalism (as opposed to regionalism and leftism—what the middle class dislikes more is a good quiz question). The BJP will have to move away from its fringe elements, even though they may be good at getting out the vote and creating mayhem. For pointers, they just have to look at the destruction of the Republican Party in the US, which relied a bit too much on the fringe. It should be a no-brainer that most of society has little respect, and even less admiration, for the fringes. Mr Vajpayee fully realised this, and it remains an open question whether the NDA would have won in 2004 if Godhra 2002 had not happened.
What if the Congress and/or the BJP are not as smart as the middle class hopes? Then here is a forecast to which yes, I can be held “accountable”! There will be the emergence of a third national party, a party whose initials will be MC. It will be a party representing basic and universal values: the near zero role of religion outside of one’s home (as traditional India always had—until 1947 and beyond); the recognition of human rights, equal opportunity, merit and the allocation of resources according to choices that individuals, not bureaucrats or the state, makes. This party will be able to recruit farmers, and teachers, and nurses, and lawyers, and businessmen. Only one criteria will be applied—are you in politics for your family and for life, or do you want to be a politician because the work appeals to you, and you feel qualified to do the job? None of this “I am in politics because I want to serve the people” humbug. No—just as some people seek out to be doctors, there are others who want to become politicians. They like the work, the application of policy to problems. That is as it should be and, Insha Allah, it will.
The author is Chairman of Oxus Investments and anchor of Tough Talk, a talk show on NDTV Profit. e-mail: surjit.bhalla@oxusinvestments.com
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