If Mr Modi has not re-invented himself by next elections, he might find that history has passed him by
T N Ninan / New Delhi Jun 06, 2009, 00:17 IST
They said this round was the “semi-final”, and that the finals in 2014 would be between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. The two men campaigned more than any other party leaders in their respective camps. On both sides, there were enthusiasts who could not wait. Some in the BJP declared Mr Modi a prime ministerial candidate while the campaigning was still on, as though LK Advani was already history; and businessmen hastened to sing his praises. In the Congress, there is no shortage of people who wait impatiently for the young scion to take charge.
What most people forgot was that, if you want to be in the finals, you have to win the semi-final. Which is why the contest seems to be over before it has begun. Post-elections, Mr Gandhi now has the aura that creates a frisson when he walks into Rashtrapati Bhavan’s Durbar Hall, while Mr Modi sits forgotten in Gandhinagar as the BJP re-orders itself and makes way for a new generation. Indeed, the party’s new leader in the Rajya Sabha as well as sundry ideologues now argue that the BJP has to move beyond Hindutva and the RSS, and offer a new generation of voters something more in tune with the new India. If true, this must move the party away from all those images of Godhra that Mr Modi is stuck with.
The truth also is that the Congress gets a far higher percentage of the vote in Gujarat (43 per cent) than it does nationally (28 per cent). And since the vote gap with the BJP in the state is just 3.3 percentage points, all that it will take to unseat Mr Modi is a 2 percentage point swing in the state’s vote. It may not seem likely, given how polarised the state has become, but it is not impossible—and where would that leave Mr Modi?
A victory is complete when you side-step the issues of old and set a new agenda, which is what the Congress has done nationally—as a reading of the President’s address to Parliament on Thursday makes clear. But Mr Modi has so far continued to set the agenda in Gujarat—refusing to make amends for Godhra while laying claim to transformational achievements, like 14 per cent annual agricultural growth, broadband connectivity in every village, a doubling of the percentage of childbirths in hospitals, and 100 per cent school enrolment of girls, not to mention all those investment figures and Gujarat overtaking Maharashtra as a business magnet. Some of the claims are open to question; for instance, the annual survey of education done by Pratham shows that girl child enrolment is outstanding, but Gujarat’s schoolchildren are among the weakest when it comes to the ability to read and do simple maths, or tell the time. Still, there is no getting away from the fact that Modi’s performance on key development indicators as been impressive.
In any case, there are no “finals” in politics. Neither Arun Jaitley nor Sushma Swaraj, the two new parliamentary leaders of the BJP, has a mass base. Ms Swaraj is a good public orator, Mr Jaitley not even that. Nor is there anyone else on the horizon who can easily replace the Vajpayee-Advani duo. So Mr Modi is certain to be useful to the party when it comes to campaign time again, which is when he could find himself once again at or near centre stage. But if he has not re-invented himself by then, he might find that history has passed him by and that, for all practical purposes, he was knocked out in the semi-final.
With all the hoopla showered on Rahu duffer by a chamcha media (like BS), one would think that Congress got 350 seats and 45-50% votes. But it got 200+ seats and <30% votes. Those who supposedly lost badly - BJP, CPM, SP and BSP - together got > 30% votes and similar seats. Please give us a break from such stupid and innane analysis - unless you have zero respect for your readers' intelligence or have other compulsions (one never knows in a Congress raj)! Finally, thousands of Sikhs were killed in 1984 and no justice has been done to victims but perhaps those were secular killings so does not matter to our media moghuls like Ninan - only the 2002 riot does. This is not to support Modi but I am sick and tired of our media raking up Gujarat riots in 2002 on any and every occasion but, as SS Barnala said in 1996 debate in LS, killings of Sikhs do not weigh at all with them.
You are correct in saying that Mr Modi and BJP has to re-invent itself. One of the ways is for Mr. Modi to deliver development with justice. Once people have prospered they need law and order to protect them. If BJP can claim to deliver justice by punishing extremist in Gujrat or the student leaders responsible for Prof Sabhrawals death in Ujjain, people will know that it is free of RSS shackles, else it can forget support from majority of Hindus.
The needed amount of unlearning is just impossible for a hardcore RSS educated man.So zero possibility for Modi to reinvent himself.The leadership crisis in congress after the assassination of Rajiv has been solved in an unpredictable way.Rahul is far ahead having all the positive civilizational energy in his lap.You are right there is nothing on the horizon for the BJP.
The point where u have said that Cong gets a higher vote share in Guj compared to the nation is easily explained by the bipolar polity in Guj and multipolar polity in the rest of the country.
I don't think this statistic has any relevance to this article.
Content Guide
