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| Turmeric faces weather blues, crop may fall 10% |
| BS Reporter / Mumbai Apr 11, 2009, 00:45 IST |
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 The country’s turmeric production for the current season is expected to fall by around 10 per cent.
The commodity analysts and traders said that unfavourable weather conditions resulting into less yield may take toll on the overall production this year.
According to the market sources, the production may slip down to as low as 39-40 lakh bags (each bag of 75 kg) from the 44 lakh bags last year. Earlier, the estimates were pegged at around 42 lakh bags for the current season.
“The production is on the downside this year, with yield in the Duggirala and Warangal centres on the decline, due to unfavourable weather conditions during the growing stage of the crop,” said Sudha Acharya, commodity analyst at Agriwatch Commodities.
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are the major turmeric producing states. However, this year, several production centres in Andhra Pradesh are expected to come up with lesser production.
Milan Shah, a Sangli-based trader in Maharashtra, said,”Prices of the commodity are expected to rule firm and may go up from the current levels as this year may turn out to be a shortage year.”
The prices of turmeric, both in futures markets as well as in the spot markets have moved up by over Rs 1,000 a quintal in the last fortnight.
“Turmeric market is touching fresh highs. In the near term scenario, the prices will remain firm,” added Acharya.
Demand from the local as well as the overseas market is reported to be good. Since, it is the peak season time with turmeric grinding units buying the crop, the prices may not slide. Also, the analysts hinted that there could be some profit bookings.
Market sources said that in areas like Warangal, Cudappah and Duggirala (where arrival has just begun), the production may be lower by almost half at around 1.5 lakh bags as against the normal 3 lakh bags.
Reports also suggested that the turmeric farmers are also holding back stocks, which is another factor triggering price hike. Presently, the price of turmeric is ruling around Rs 10-15 per kg higher than the same time last year.
In Nizamabad, when arrivals started, prices ruled at around Rs 4,000 a quintal which has now touched Rs 5,000-5,200 a quintal. Similarly, in centres like Erode (Tamil Nadu), the current prices are ruling at Rs 5,200-5,500 a quintal.
The current arrivals in Nizamabad (which was around 16,000 bags on Monday) have a moisture content of around 10-15 per cent. On Tuesday, the arrivals came below 10,000 bags.The arrivals are expected to continue till May.
However, a section of traders said that the exhorbitant prices of turmeric were due to the speculators in the market. Manu Bhai Shah, a Mumbai-based veteran in the turmeric market and member of the Bombay Kirana Colours and Chemical Merchants’s Association, said, “The actual production is not that low as it has been reiterated. The production, though on the downside, is expected to be 46 lakh bags and there will not be any shortage in the country.”
The speculators have pushed the prices up in the season time only, he added. The association has written a letter to the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) asking for a ban on turmeric futures trading.
On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, the near-month contract of turmeric had closed last week at Rs 5,489 a quintal. A month ago, the futures were at Rs 4,754 a quintal.
Our reporter from Duggirala adds: There has been a sudden spurt in turmeric prices since the second week of March in Andhra and other states. Delay in arrivals and Ncdex forward market trends are said to have pushed up prices by Rs 1,000-1,100 per quintal in two weeks. The crop prices went up to Rs 6,000 a quintal and above at various markets in the country. Though the season begins in February, the market touches its peak level by mid-April when new crop arrives.
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