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| Weak monsoon may impact GDP growth, inflation: Crisil |
| Press Trust of India / Mumbai Aug 10, 2009, 20:10 IST |
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Rating agency Crisil today said a deficient monsoon, which is the most critical determinant of agricultural production, is likely to affect India's GDP growth and inflation in the current fiscal.
"While the overall national agriculture is not at same level of risk as it was in 2002, some states definitely face a grave situation... This will definitely shave off some part of the GDP," Crisil said in a release here.
A 64 per cent shortage in rainfall during July 30-August 5 has raised cumulative deficiency in this monsoon season to 25 per cent, the rating agency said.
"The signs so far are not encouraging. For the foodgrain group as a whole, the Deficient Rainfall impact Parameter (DRIP) score is highest since 2002-03...," Crisil's Principal Economist Dharmakirti Joshi said.
The agency measures the impact of rainfall using an index named Deficient Rainfall impact Parameter (DRIP), which was developed in 2002.
Lower area under cultivation, together with a high DRIP score, will result in significant shortfall in rice production. Other vulnerable crops are coarse cereals and pulses, Joshi said.
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