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You
can bank on banks. Or so it would seem from the 66 per cent
rise in the BSE Bankex over the past year. In a rising interest
rate scenario, banks were able to hike rates on loans and
while the cost of deposits too rose the bigger banks have
managed to maintain or improve their net interest margins.
In
a strong economy where credit growth is still healthy, bank
stocks should do well provided they keep their non-performing
loans in check. Banks such as HDFC Bank and Axis Bank should
outperform.
Tech
funds on the other hand, are an absolute no-no in an environment
where the rupee is appreciating. Moreover,
with attrition high and wage costs increasing, tech firms
are going to find it difficult to protect their margins.
Besides,
the spending on technology could slow down if the US economy
doesnt get going. Valuations for stocks such as Infosys
are still demanding though TCS is attractively valued.
The
current year is going to be a difficult one for FMCG firms
given input cost pressures. Despite a reasonably good growth
in the top line, they will find it hard to sustain margins.
The
FMCG index has been flat over the past year mainly because
heavyweights HUL and ITC didnt do too well. But a couple
of stocks, including ITC and Nestle could outperform.
Its
a rough ride for the auto sector which is finding it hard
to push volumes. With the exception of Maruti Suzuki, none
of the companies is likely to turn in strong numbers given
that interest rates remain high.
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