Congress To Stay Ahead In Coastal, Northern Orissa
Thanks to a split in opposition votes, the Congress is set to retain its supremacy in Orissas coastal and northern regions comprising 11 Lok Sabha seats, notwithstanding an undercurrent of pro-change mood among the voters.
In 1996, the Congress won seven seats from the region and the Janata Dal four. The Congress appears set to retain its tally, as it would benefit from triangular fights in some crucial seats where the presence of Janata Dal heavyweights has come in the way of a polarisation of opposition votes. This has also queered the pitch for a direct fight between the two main contenders-the Congress and the BJP-Biju Janata Dal (BJD) combine.
Interestingly, the BJD, which is contesting eight of the 11 seats leaving three to its electoral partner BJP, is vying for the same vote bank as the Janata Dal from which it was carved out three months ago. While the truncated Janata Dal may end up playing the role of spoiler, the BJD is fighting the elections with two major handicaps-a resource crunch and a new symbol, conch, which is still unfamilar to most of its supporters drawn from the Janata Dal. This has been to the Congress advantage.
In Kendrapara, once the pocketborough of the late Biju Patnaik, the prospects of BJD-which projects itself as the inheritor of Bijus legacy-has dimmed considerably because of the presence of Union parlimenary affairs minister Srikant Jena of the Janata Dal. Jena who initially faced the voterswrath for his alleged neglect of the constituency has now emerged as the frontrunner. With Jena threatening to take away a large chunk of opposition votes, a Congress victory looks brighter in the constituency, which has never elected a Congress candidate since 1952.
Similar is the situation in Cuttack, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Berhampur, Bhubaneswar and Mayurbhanj which are witnessing fierce triangular fights with CPI, CPM and JMM replacing the Janata Dal as the third force spoiler in the last three three seats. In Aska, BJD president Naveen Patnaik has established a clear edge over his Congress rival despite the spoiler presence of the CPI, in Puri and Balasore, the Congress is locked in almost direct contest with the BJD and the BJP respectively.