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Professional forecasters lower GDP growth to 6.5%: RBI

In the case of inflation, forecasters have predicted the WPI numbers falling into 7-7.9% by end-March 2012-13

Press Trust of India  |  Mumbai 

Professional have lowered India's growth rate forecast for 2012-13 to 6.5% from the earlier 7.2% on back of high inflation and deficient monsoon, today said.

'Survey of Professional Forecasters', conducted by the Reserve Bank, also shows a downward revision in the median growth forecast for the first quarter of 2012-13 to 5.5%, showing a downward revision from 6.6%.

"Real growth rate forecast for 2012-13 is revised downwards to 6.5% from 7.2% in the last survey... The were asked to assign probabilities to the possibility of year-on-year real growth rate falling into various ranges. For 2012-13, they assigned maximum probability of 34.3% to 6.0-6.4% growth range for GDP with an upward bias," the said.

In the case of inflation, the said, have predicted the WPI numbers falling into 7-7.9% by end-March 2012-13 with a downward bias.

External agencies also see moderation in growth ahead, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) placing GDP at 6.1% this calendar year, World Bank seeing 6.9% for the fiscal, OECD at 7.3%, and ADB at 6.5%.

"Stuttering global growth coupled with domestic concerns on multiple fronts, viz, weak IIP growth momentum, persistent inflation, and high fiscal and current account deficits, without much being done on the reform front, have led to further downward revisions in the growth outlook for 2012-13," the RBI said.

Further, the government's fiscal deficit is projected at 5.5% of GDP in 2012-13, the same as forecast in the last round and the combined gross fiscal deficit of Centre and States is placed at 7.9% of GDP in 2012-13, marginally down from the last survey.

The forecasters expected the repo rate to be at 7.50% in end period of 2012-13, while projection for CRR for end 2012-13 is revised up by 25 basis points to 4.50% from 4.25% in the last round.

Forecasts for agricultural GDP remained unchanged at 3.0%, while that of industry was revised downwards to 4.0% from 6.0% and growth forecast for services GDP is revised downwards to 8.0% from 8.8% in the last survey, it said.

Long-term forecast for real GDP for the next five years (2013-2017) was 7.5%, revised downward from earlier.

For the year 2012-13, growth forecasts for both exports and imports are revised downwards.

Exports are projected to grow at 12.0% while Imports are predicted to grow by 8.3% in 2012-13.

First Published: Mon, July 30 2012. 20:46 IST