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Rathin Roy: The politics of growth projections

Rathin Roy

Since my return to India two years ago, I have fielded many questions from rating agencies and fund managers about forecasts of India's economic growth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Private forecasts from organisations like Goldman Sachs are also a regular feature of our policy landscape. The number of external agencies giving us their "take" on the future growth rate today far outnumbers domestic forecasters (the Union government, the Reserve Bank of India plus the occasional think tank). Private agencies make ...