Suman Bery: Budgeting for uncertainty

A scenario-based approach would help manage uncertainty by stretching the bounds of plausibility

Suman Bery

My last column appeared less than a month ago, on the eve of the British referendum. Like most commentators, and many investors, I made the wrong call on the outcome of the referendum. The plunge in the sterling-dollar rate (referred to as 'cable' by traders) immediately following the vote was apparently triggered by over-confident hedge funds who had bet in anticipation of a vote for "Remain". On the whole, the immediate financial market shock has been relatively moderate globally, with the exception perhaps of the sterling, which has plunged to post-crisis lows, and shares ...