Letter to BS: Accuracy of predictions by exit polls still a challenge

Let us therefore take the present clutch of exit poll predictions merely as another exercise in an attempt to improve the hit rate


This refers to “A modern-day comedy of errors” (December 9). The exit polls may well have matured over time in improved projection of vote share from sample size to actuals, however, the problem in a highly-segmented electorate lies in deducing the seat share from the vote percentages. In Assembly polls, where the combination of pre-poll allies has closely associated regional factors, is amenable to more rational analysis. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK had a 30 per cent vote share and drew a blank but in 2009, with 23 per cent vote share, it won nine seats. Let us ...