El Nino's local impact may outweigh overall monsoon deficit, warn experts

Experts say the spatial distribution of rainfall and longer monsoon breaks could have a greater impact on farmers and rural livelihoods than the overall seasonal rainfall deficit

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week lowered the 2026 monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) from April’s forecast of 92 per cent. If this comes true, it would make monsoon 2026 among the driest since 2015 when the IMD in its first April forecast predicted monsoon to be 93 per cent of the LPA. 

 

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is an 80 per cent chance of El Niño forming in June-August. Most weathermen and meteorologists believe that the 2026 southwest monsoon season might mirror the 2015 season, which too was an El Niño year. 

The 2015 monsoon

In 2015, cumulative rainfall across the country in the four months to September was just 86 per cent of the LPA. 

 

That made 2014 and 2015 two consecutive years of ‘deficient’ rains — the fourth such instance in 115 years, after 1904 and 1905; 1965 and 1966; and 1986 and 1987. 

 

In 2015, as per IMD records, the southwest monsoon, which usually makes landfall in Kerala around June 1, was 16 per cent surplus in June, but lost steam thereafter with showers in all subsequent months below normal. 

 

It was 16 per cent below normal in July, and worsened to 22 and 24 per cent below normal in August and September, respectively. But because of the surplus showers in June, the southwest monsoon after the first two months of June and July taken together was deficient by just 4 per cent. 

 

In contrast, the monsoon deficit in June and July, 2014, was massive — almost 22 per cent — as June received scant rains. However, within this overall monsoon deficit in 2015, there were patches and periods where the showers were almost normal. 

 

For example, in July 2015, while the overall rainfall across the country was 16 per cent below normal, parts of central and northwest India saw above-normal rains. Likewise, in August 2015, when the all-India average was 22 per cent lower than the LPA, there was isolated rainfall over the eastern peninsular region, particularly Tamil Nadu and the erstwhile undivided Andhra Pradesh. 

 

Similarly, in September 2015, while the whole country received deficient rainfall, with regions stretching from central to north-west India sweltering under ‘acute rainfall deficit’, the monsoon remained active over Odisha and its neighbouring areas. 

 

That year, the seasonal rainfall (from June to September) was 83 per cent of the LPA over north-west India, 84 per cent of LPA over central India, 85 per cent of LPA over the south peninsular region and 92 per cent of LPA over northeast India. Of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 subdivisions, constituting 55 per cent of the total area of the country, received normal rainfall and 17 subdivisions (39 per cent of the total area of the country) received deficient rainfall. 

 

One subdivision (West Rajasthan) constituting 6 per cent of the total area of the country received excess rainfall.

Watch the spread

It is in this spatial distribution, or regional spread, where the story of mon- soon 2026 could also lie, experts believe. 

 

While overall rainfall might fall into the ‘deficient’ category, there could be patches and periods when the rains would be normal, above normal, or below normal. 

 

It is those periods and patches which need to be tracked. The IMD for now has said that except for the north-eastern region, most other parts including the rainfed areas of the Core Monsoon Zone — rainfed but agriculturally vital areas of central, western and eastern India — will get ‘below normal’ rains in 2026. 

 

Typically, weather officials say, an El Niño year is classified as one in which the volume of rain is less, and breaks are longer. “Usually, in a normal monsoon year, there are breaks of 7-8 days, but in an El Niño year, these breaks are typically longer — sometimes even 15-20 days which can even go up to 25 days over a particular region,” Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary in the ministry of earth sciences and an expert on monsoons told Business Standard. 

 

Rajeevan said that IMD is predicting close to 60 per cent probability of deficient rains which means that there is a good possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor. “The only thing we don’t know is what would be the spatial distribution of the rains and how evenly it will be spread. Typically, in an El Niño year, central India, and the northern and southern peninsula, are the areas where we normally have a difficult monsoon season. But the north-east will have good rainfall, where we can also expect some floods. Also, monsoon breaks will be longer this year due to El Niño,” he added. 

 

He said currently there are no strong positive climate factors expected to offset El Niño. “While some models are indicating a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), IOD forecasts are generally less reliable than El Niño forecasts. The projected IOD strength of around 0.5°C is not particularly strong and may not provide meaningful support to the monsoon. Therefore, policymakers should not depend on the IOD to compensate for El Niño impacts,” Rajeevan said. He, too, said that the 2026 monsoon might bear similarities to 2015. 

 

“In 2015, the south-west monsoon had a delayed onset (the rains arrived on June 5 against the forecast of May 30, five days later than normal). This year too, the arrival and progression of the monsoon may be delayed (the IMD’s latest forecast says monsoon might hit Kerala on June 4, having initially estimated May 28). Thereafter, though some months may witness good rainfall spells, the overall seasonal rainfall is likely to remain below normal due to longer dry periods,” Rajeevan said. 

 

Lessons from 2015 shows that THERE WILL BE some patches where rains would be good but others where they would be extremely poor. It is on those patches and on farmers with small land-holdings in rainfed regions, growing one or two crops, where focus should lie. 

 

The government has identified 240-odd districts, which are typically low-rain impacted, but its approach has to be dynamic as there may be inter-district variability in rainfall. “We always talk about all India rice production, etc, which might not fall by much, but at the local level, things might get extremely bad for small farmers. Overall, negative impact on GDP etc might not be there but typically, in an El Niño year, localised impact might be immense, which we need to watch out for,” Rajeevan said. 

 

It is these small bits which would also determine how rural India fares in the remaining part of FY27. As in 2015, overall food grain production might not have dropped significantly, but data shows that between 2013-14 and 2015-16 crop years (July to June) — which included the two monsoon-impacted years of 2014 and 2015 — India’s pulse production fell 15.22 per cent from 19.25 million tonnes to 16.32 million tonnes. 

 

Similarly, horticulture production during the same period dropped by almost 5.09 per cent from 265.05 million tonnes to 251.54 million tonnes and oilseeds fell 23 per cent from 32.75 million tonnes to 25.25 million tonnes in the same period. Typically, in a low rainfall year, pulses, oilseeds and horticulture are among the worst-impacted crops. 

The differences

One major difference between the 2015 monsoon season and the current year is that 2015 was the second successive year of deficient monsoon (monsoon in 2014 was 10.1 per cent below normal). But 2025 and 2024 were both surplus monsoon years. This means that not only are reservoir levels good, but soil moisture is also stronger than in 2015. Also, between 2015 and 2026, India’s farm sector has transformed and developed a greater resilience to low rains. 

 

The government’s assessment is that between 2000 and 2016, El Niño events had a more pronounced effect on farm output due to a higher dependence on rainfall and relatively weaker mitigation systems. 

 

However, in recent years expanded irrigation networks, better water conservation practices, improved farm management and wider use of high-yielding and resilient seed varieties have brought greater stability to production. 

 

India’s rising irrigation coverage which has moved up from 49.3 per cent to 55 per cent of the gross dropped area between FY16 and FY21 could act as a big buffer. Not only that, the area under micro-irrigation in horticulture crops has risen from 0.33 per cent in 2015-16 to almost 56 per cent in 2023-24. That apart, increased usage of climate resistant seeds and somewhat better availability of social security has made low monsoon not the feared phenome- non it used to be some decades back. 

 

Moreover, unlike in 2015 India now has a pulse buffer stock exceeding four million tonnes, which could help offset the impact of low production. Its foodgrain stocks are also better than in 2015. 

 

All these factors suggest that even if rains falter in 2026, the impact could be muted. It is the regional disparities and pockets of distress – typical of an El Niño year – that policymakers need to watch out for. A spike in prices of non-subsidised fertilisers and diesel — the fuel that powers almost 60 per cent of farm machines — could further worsen these pain points.