India's cash withdrawals surge 12% in first half of April, RBI data shows

Currency in circulation in India surged by over ₹61,000 crore ($6.40 billion) in the first 15 days of April, ​pushing the total to a record ₹42.3 trillion, and ​a sustained pattern could impact liquidity, economists said.

The spike, up 11.8 per cent on-year and ‌the highest since early 2017 after demonetisation, extends a rise in cash demand seen over the past six months and through the last financial year, central bank data showed.

Currency demand had been "somewhat subdued" relative to GDP growth in recent years, setting the stage for a sharper rebound, helped by strong rural demand, said Abhishek Upadhyay, co-head of research at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.

 

A cut in the goods and services tax on several daily-use items in September also boosted demand.

Lower interest rates have further supported cash usage, particularly in rural areas with ‌a higher propensity to spend, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India.

He added that higher prices of precious metals may have also lifted currency in circulation through the recycling of gold and silver from households.

The surge, if it persists, could pose a challenge for surplus liquidity in the banking system, which the central bank has tried to maintain to support economic activity.

HDFC Bank ​expects the liquidity surplus to average around 1 per cent of deposits in the first half of the ‌current financial year, before easing to 0.5 per cent in the second half.

"But if CIC continues to remain elevated due to a rise in inflation, further acceleration in rural demand, ​and ‌any impact from state elections, liquidity balances could move towards the lower band of the ‌forecast range," economist Sakshi Gupta said.

The RBI said in March that holding the surplus within a range of 0.6 per cent-1.1 per cent of deposits helps in keeping the spread between ‌the weighted ​average call rate ​and policy rate narrow.

RBI's infusions have kept banking liquidity in surplus, but going forward, while RBI dividend will support it, CIC will drain it ‌further, said Dhiraj ​Nim, an economist and FX strategist at ANZ.